AIRSPACE RISKS
The full risk of Ukrainian drones to aviation over Russia, the world’s largest country by land mass, is not clear, but there have been deadly incidents of civilian aircraft being mistakenly targeted in the region.
Aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to clients that while the majority of Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes were likely to occur within 300km of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russia were near-certain through 2026, including near Moscow and St Petersburg.
“There is also a realistic possibility that the frequency of Ukrainian strikes will continue to increase in the short term deep inside Russian territory,” the alert said. “It is assessed that miscalculation and/or misidentification is likely in areas related to the Ukraine conflict.”
Osprey said Russian military air defences included conventional surface-to-air missile systems capable at all altitudes.
Last year, Europe’s top rights court found Russia responsible for the downing of a Malaysian jetliner in 2014 at cruising altitude over eastern Ukraine where there was fighting.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Azerbaijan’s leader last year that two Russian missiles had detonated beside an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in 2024 after Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace, in an incident that led to the deaths of 38 people.
