Canada is now attempting its own approach. But without rare earths or other chokepoints, it is looking at other opportunities to turn targeted economic pain into disproportionate political pressure on the Mr Trump.
With the midterm elections now weeks away, Canada is calibrating its retaliation to target politically important states for the November polls. It is betting that a counter-tariff campaign focused on states that could determine control of the Senate, such as Michigan and Maine, will force Mr Trump to offer a better deal before November.
However, this strategy has its risks. Even if Canada can secure concessions before the midterms, a vengeful Mr Trump could easily restart this conflict next year. As Mr Carney noted, America’s signature is “written in pencil” and prone to changes.
It is also less clear whether Canada can successfully diversify from the US in the long term. Despite a goal to double its non-US exports over the next decade, Canadian auto makers are deeply intertwined with American supply chains and cannot easily pivot away. Though both sides are expected to face economic pain, Canada will suffer disproportionately.
The question now is who blinks first. But looking further afield, a bigger question is whether standing up to Mr Trump in such a public manner is worthwhile.
Kevin Chen is an Associate Research Fellow with the US Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. He writes a monthly column for CNA, published every first Friday.
