It’s been a blistering year for the U.S. The first eight months of 2026 were the hottest such period ever recorded in the contiguous U.S. since at least 1895. That puts 2026 on track to being among the hottest years the country has ever seen—if not the hottest.
Whether or not this year takes the top slot in that bleak ranking is still unclear. But the outlook isn’t good, climate scientists say.
Right now where 2026 will clock in is a matter of probability. The hottest year the contiguous U.S. has ever recorded was in 2024, at 55.48 degrees Fahrenheit (about 13 degrees Celsius) on average, explains Zeke Hausfather, a climatologist and a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report.
On supporting science journalism
If you’re enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.
We’re likely set to break that record, he says: January–August 2026 clocked in at 57.98 degrees F (14.43 degrees C) on average, 0.08 degrees F (about 0.04 degrees C) above the previous record of 57.90 degrees F (14.39 degrees C) for that period, which was set in 2012, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
If the U.S.’s temperature averages above around 50.5 degrees F (about 10.3 degrees C) this September through December, the country will break the record for its hottest year, Hausfather says. “That is a warm autumn but not an unusual one anymore,” he says.
January–August 2026 statewide temperature rankings.
NOAA
In the last 10 years, the final four months of the year have averaged about 2.6 degrees F (about 1.4 degrees C) above the historical 20th-century average, Hausfather says. By his calculations, this fall only needs to hit 2.2 degrees F (about 1.2 degrees C) above average to be our hottest year. Data suggest September was anomalously warm.
“In other words, 2026 only needs a fairly typical recent-era finish to set the record,” Hausfather says, putting the odds at about 80 percent.
“It would take a cooler-than-normal autumn to keep it from happening,” he says.
Other scientists are more cautious. When asked for comment by Scientific American, a NOAA spokesperson shared an early look at September’s temperatures and pointed to data showing that the agency expects above-normal temperatures across much of the continental U.S. from October through December. But neither source absolutely predicts whether 2026 will be a record-warm year, the spokesperson said, citing NOAA physical scientist Russell Vose.
Climate Central scientist Zachary Labe notes that forecasting the weather is complex and variable, which makes such predictions tricky. At this point in 2024, for instance, the year ranked as the second warmest, not the warmest, Labe says. Things could change.
What scientists do agree on, however, is that 2026 has been extremely—and concerningly—hot. “Average temperatures across the country continue to reach new record levels, which is consistent with the long-term warming driven by human-caused climate change,” Labe says.
“Whether 2026 ultimately ranks as number one or number three doesn’t distract from the bigger story that temperatures are rising across the country and leading to major impacts for communities,” he adds.
It seems “more than likely” that 2026 may turn out to be a record hot year for the U.S., says Kim Cobb, a climate scientist and a professor at Brown University. But even if it doesn’t, the country remains at high risk of “fossil-fueled extremes” such as heat waves and extraordinary rainfall.
“We do not need a record-breaking year for U.S. temperatures to know that fossil-fueled climate change is threatening our economy, our critical infrastructure, our health and our national security,” she says.
Then there’s next year. A brewing “Super El Niño” in the Pacific threatens to make 2027 even more destructive for the planet.
“Most climate scientists are looking at the projections for record-shattering global temperatures next year with a profound sense of dread—as hot as 2026 has been, and as horrific in terms of weather and climate extremes, 2027 looks like it could be a lot worse, according to our best projections,” Cobb says.
