“CLOSER TO A DIRECT CONFLICT”
Maxim Starchak, a specialist on Russian nuclear policy at Queen’s University in Canada, said that the Kremlin’s doctrine “lowers the threshold” for nuclear weapons use. But it also “introduces ambiguity”, he said.
“On the one hand, Russia speaks about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in case of a territorial threat, but on the other hand, the scale of such a threat is not clear.”
Setting aside the nuclear question, Starchak said, the recent arrival of North Korean troops on the Russian side, and the US-supplied missile launches on the Ukrainian side “are certainly an escalation of the conflict”.
While either development “does not mean that the finger is already on the nuclear button, we are getting closer to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries”, he said.
It is imperative for Russia, said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based independent analyst, “to achieve its goals sooner rather than later” and intensified western assistance for Ukraine is slowing the Kremlin down.
“Russia is pushing forward and maybe the calculation is that Russia wants to keep its momentum,” Podvig said.
Having gained costly territorial advantages in recent months, Putin may seek to exploit a window between the Biden administration and the presumably more accommodating Trump presidency, according to Tatiana Stanovaya, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Putin may see the current situation as a strategic “in-between” moment, she said, anticipating possible peace initiatives from Trump while emphasising what he views as the “irresponsibility” of Biden’s policy.
