All four No. 1 seeds still remain as the men’s Sweet 16 is set to tip off on Thursday night.
While this year’s NCAA Tournament has not had as much madness as fans have come to expect, the lack of upsets sets the stage for what should be a thrilling and captivating Sweet 16 with four of the power conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) all represented.
Although the one-seeds will garner most of the attention, and rightfully so, here are three teams that are not on the one-line that are best positioned for a Final Four run.
No. 2 seed Michigan State
The two-seed Michigan State is a pair of wins away from claiming the South region and its first Final Four since 2019. Michigan State (NET ranking of 11) has the third-most Quad 1 wins behind No. 1 seeds Auburn (16) and Houston (14).
The Spartans’ Sweet 16 opponent, six-seed Ole Miss, has a NET ranking of 28 but has certainly been battle-tested in the vaunted SEC. Michigan State thrives in bench production with an average of 34.46 points per game, which is fifth in the nation. Even if the Spartans get into foul trouble, they have the depth to overcome it.
If Michigan State keeps dancing to the Elite Eight, it would face the winner of the Auburn-Michigan matchup. The Spartans swept their in-state rivals during the regular season and should pose a significant challenge to the top-seeded Tigers. Assuming Michigan State remains healthy and maintains its bench production, its depth could lead it to its first national title since 2000.
No. 3 seed Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are the only team in the Sweet 16 that will be facing a double-digit seed when they go up against the 10-seed Arkansas on Thursday night. While John Calipari’s Razorbacks have the momentum, Texas Tech is a team that finished second to Houston in the Big 12 and is led by sophomore JT Toppin (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG).
Texas Tech’s assist-to-turnover ratio (1.71) speaks to its ability to take care of the ball without turning it over. If that continues, it is going to be difficult for Arkansas to overcome.
If Texas Tech reaches the Elite Eight, the Florida-Maryland winner would be waiting. Assuming the chalk holds, Florida’s inconsistency from the free-throw line (71.91%, 187th in the country) could leave the door open for a Final Four run from the Red Raiders, where they have not been since 2019.
No. 4 seed Arizona
It was a rocky start to the season for the Wildcats, who lost five of their first nine games. One of those was a 69-55 setback against Duke on Nov. 22. Despite the early adversity, the Wildcats have a NET ranking of 12 and own 10 Quad 1 wins. They also have senior Caleb Love, who is coming off a 29-point performance in which he shot 5-of-7 from three-point range.
The No. 1 seed Blue Devils showed their dominance in the first two rounds and appear to have freshman sensation Cooper Flagg back at full strength. However, Arizona gets a second chance against Duke, which is something any team outside of the ACC has not had.
A potential Elite Eight meeting would be against the BYU-Alabama winner. Both teams are as explosive as any team offensively but lack a consistent defense that has proven to repeatedly get stops. That could play to Arizona’s favor and lead the program to its first Final Four since 2001.
