This strategy is often referred to as a “reverse Kissinger”, in reference to the late American grand strategist’s success of capitalising on the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s and normalising US relations with communist China.
That Mr Trump and his advisers lack the strategic acumen of Henry Kissinger and that there is no Russia-China split on the horizon to capitalise on does not mean that rapprochement between the US and Russia is impossible.
On the contrary, if the terms were right, both Mr Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin might yet seal a deal to serve their interests – but such a deal will unlikely bring an end to the war against Ukraine.
THE ONLY PLAYER WITH A REMOTE CHANCE
The US is still the only player in the complex dynamics of negotiations with even a remote chance of getting a deal done, because of the leverage the Trump administration has over Russia and Ukraine. Past initiatives by other countries never got any traction, because they lacked the ability to bring Kyiv and Moscow to the table.
In Russia’s case, Mr Trump has so far focused on incentives and emphasised that he can offer Mr Putin much of what the Kremlin wants. Washington’s seven-point peace plan, which has not been published, included the recognition of territorial gains in Ukraine, the lifting of all US sanctions and ruling out Ukraine’s future North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership.
