Republican leaders are trying to convince Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., to drop his consideration of a run for governor of New York as concerns over protecting his battleground House seat next year mount, according to four senior GOP sources familiar with the situation.
Lawler says he hasn’t made a final decision about whether he will launch a 2026 campaign for governor. But party leaders are already growing nervous about the prospect of his abandoning one of just three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election and have privately urged him to stay in the House as they seek to protect their narrow majority, the four sources said. Some advisers close to President Donald Trump also have similar concerns about Lawler’s running for governor, according to two GOP sources familiar with the matter.
Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who recently met with Trump at the White House, called Lawler an “outstanding” House candidate.
“I would prefer he not run for governor,” Hudson told NBC News. Asked whether he has communicated those feelings to Lawler, he said, “Yes.”
Republicans see Lawler, a two-term congressman and former member of the New York Assembly, as uniquely situated to win his Hudson Valley-area district, which is why several senior Republican sources said they believe it would be difficult to recruit a candidate to replace him. Lawler, who was considered one of the most vulnerable GOP lawmakers up for re-election last cycle, ended up winning by nearly 6 percentage points.
“No one is waiting in the wings of his quality,” a national GOP strategist involved in House races said. “Everyone thinks very highly of Mike, and we believe he is uniquely qualified to run and win that seat.”
Lawler has said he will decide on his plans by June.
“As I have said throughout this process, I will make my decision as to whether to run for Governor in June,” Lawler said in a statement to NBC News. “That decision, which will be based on a number of factors and considerations, will be mine alone to make and will not be impacted by the decisions or desires of any of my colleagues.”
Democrats need to gain only three seats to regain control of the House, and the president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm election. For Trump, a Democratic-controlled House also would mean he would be likely to face an onslaught of investigations and potentially a third impeachment.
The Elise Stefanik factor
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., also looms over the situation, as she is considering a bid for governor, NBC News first reported this month.
Trump withdrew Stefanik’s nomination to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations last month because of concerns over Republicans’ narrow House margins as they try to pass a sweeping domestic policy agenda. Party leaders, though, would be less worried about defending Stefanik’s upstate New York seat, which Trump carried 21 points in November, than Lawler’s if it opened up next year.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he would prefer that both Lawler and Stefanik remain in the House when NBC News asked whether he has had conversations with them about their ambitions, adding that he would support whatever they decide to do.
“I have lots of conversations. I love them both. They’re two of my favorite people and my most trusted colleagues, and they’re both super talented, which is why they get talked about for doing other things,” Johnson said at his weekly news conference Tuesday. “I mean, my preference is that they all stay here with me, right? We get the job done, but, but I don’t begrudge anybody for having other opportunities, and we ultimately support them in whatever they do.”
After Stefanik called out Johnson on social media for those remarks, saying it was “not true” that they had talked, Johnson clarified that he hadn’t specifically spoken to Stefanik about her gubernatorial ambitions but simply meant that he has conversations with his members in general about potential opportunities.
Stefanik’s office declined to provide any further comment. Johnson’s office also declined to comment.
Tensions between the two camps have been brewing privately for weeks, as Johnson is still working to deliver on a promise to put Stefanik back on the House Intelligence Committee after her nomination to be U.N. ambassador fell through. Now some of those tensions are spilling out into public view.
In the same social media post Tuesday, Stefanik said she’s “looking forward to the conversation” about the state and local tax deduction with fellow New York Republicans on Wednesday. Johnson had planned to host a smaller meeting with some so-called SALT Republicans in his office, including Lawler, but not everyone was invited to attend, according to a source familiar with the invitation list. They include Stefanik, who voted against the 2017 tax law because it put a $10,000 cap on the SALT deduction.
But Johnson has since opened up the SALT meeting to include other Republicans who care about the issue, according to another source familiar with the planning. How Republicans address the SALT cap in their bill for Trump’s agenda will have a major impact in high-tax blue states like New York, and it could emerge as a key issue in the race for governor.
Senior New York Republicans told NBC News they believe Stefanik, one of Trump’s top allies on Capitol Hill, could easily defeat Lawler in a primary if both decided to run.
But there’s less confidence among New York GOP sources about how Stefanik would perform in a general election. While some polls have found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul with a poor approval rating and she only narrowly defeated former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022, New York hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2002. And the political environment could be difficult for Republicans in 2026 given that it will be a midterm year under a GOP president.
A high-ranking New York Republican was skeptical that either Stefanik or Lawler could win a general election.
“There are 3 million more of them than there are of us,” the Republican said, comparing voter registration numbers. Hochul “may just win even though she’s upside down right now.”
