We don’t know exactly when Caitlin Clark will come back, but when she does, the Indiana Fever will take off.
Their record after eight games is 4-4. That’s nothing to write home about; however, Clark was sidelined for half of those games.
Indiana needed to go 2-2 without her, and it did, assuming Clark can return for Tuesday’s game against the Atlanta Dream. That’s still up in the air. Clark said she won’t rush herself back.
At this point, she doesn’t need to. The record might not reflect it, but the Fever have been one of the best teams in the WNBA.
The Fever’s expected record, according to Basketball Reference, is 6-2. They have a point differential of plus 8.1, which is third best in the WNBA, even without Clark for half the season.
The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx are both undefeated. They look poised for a WNBA Finals rematch. New York is beating teams by 19 points per game. Minnesota is beating teams by an average of 10.1.
Yet, Indiana isn’t that far behind. What’s even more impressive is the Fever’s second-ranked defense, at least according to defensive rating (96.6).
That means Indiana is allowing less than a point-per-possession. Last season, the Fever ranked 11th out of 12 teams in the same metric.
The goal of Indiana’s offseason was to build a defense capable of winning a championship. Through eight games, that goal appears to be achieved.
Only two other WNBA teams have a positive point differential: Atlanta (3.6) and Seattle (1.5).
The Dream defeated Indiana by a point earlier this season, a loss Indiana later avenged. Atlanta is on the docket Tuesday, if Clark can go, but even if Indiana drops that game, the pieces are there for the Fever to be a title contender.
The Fever are fourth in the WNBA in field goal percentage (46.2) and 3-point percentage (35.6). Yet, they are eighth in 3-point makes.
All of those numbers will improve once Clark returns, as will the offensive efficiency.
The second-year pro is also tied for the best individual defensive rating on the roster, according to Basketball Reference, so the defense shouldn’t drop off at all with Clark returning to the lineup.
Beyond the numbers, Aliyah Boston has continued to progress. She’s shooting 68 percent on 2-point attempts, 66.7 percent overall, and scoring 15.3 points per game. That’s in addition to 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks.
Kelsey Mitchell has been incredibly valuable on both ends of the floor (17.4 ppg). Lexie Hull is shooting 60 percent from 3-point range and is one of five Fever players to average at least one 3-point field goal per game.
Indiana has a lot to prove. Eight games aren’t a huge sample size, plus Clark wasn’t on the floor for half of the games.
There were some rough moments without Clark, mainly a loss to the Connecticut Sun. Yet, Indiana’s defense, allowing just 64 points per game in the past two wins, saved the day.
Once Clark gets back and the Fever offense gets back to playing at an elite level, this will be one of the WNBA’s best teams.
By midseason, it will be clear it’s one of the few capable of winning the WNBA championship.
