COMMENT: Well, Iran voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Thank you for explaining the Iran-China connection. I now understand how this becomes an option.
Sam
QUESTION: The last report you did on the cycle of war with Israel turned up on April 1, 2025. That was the precise day when Jerusalem police detained several dozen protesters and arrested two of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s top aides—Yonatan Urich and Eli Feldstein—on corruption charges linked to alleged bribes from Qatar. The IDF intensified operations in Gaza, especially around Rafah and Khan Younis, and Israeli warplanes bombed southern Beirut. Your model projected from 2025 to 2029. Do you have any plans to update on the Middle East?
Josh
REPLY: The Iranian parliament has indeed approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US strikes against their nuclear facilities. This is the passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows. The two central oil-producing countries that use this route are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Those in the West, like the head of the Institute for the Study of War, General Keane, another hardline Neocon at Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law’s operation, keep judging others by themselves. They seem to think that they can force political change by armed force, and somehow, the people will rise up against the government to achieve their goal. That’s the same thinking behind sanctions. Punish the Russian people enough, and they will overthrow Putin. I have never witnessed this philosophy ever working, even once.
My concern is that even the moderates in the region have become skeptical of Israel since it started stepping up its assassinations of generals and nuclear scientists. From what I’ve heard, that has changed things for some Iranians who would have been opposed to the Supreme Leader. When I conducted this research report on how governments are overthrown, to my shock, it turns out that on average, it takes less than 15% of real devoted rebels to overthrow a government.
Yes, updating the cycle of war for the Middle East is on the list of priorities. My sources in several Arab countries have all said the same thing: businesses are closed, and they are in shock that Trump acted the way he did. They are uncertain about the future of the Middle East now. So this is a top priority.
