Commentary
There’s nothing like being an event planner when the big invites that are the “Flagship Speakers” of the event are no shows. Not just no shows, it is known well in advance they will not be there at all. So much lipstick will have to be used as concealment that the pig might go into toxic shock over the generous layers applied. The former heir apparent of counter-U.S. leadership, Xi, sent a minion, Putin suddenly must suddenly organize his sock drawer, Iran is digging out from the rubble, South Africa doesn’t know what to do without guidance from their new colonial master of China, and Brazil is being put on notice for their mistreatment of President Bolsonaro. India was only in attendance at the BRICS Summit, July 6-7 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to fill the vacuum created by the absence of Xi and Putin.
In event planning, this kind of debacle is known as a “Code B4”, or BRICS without the Big Boys becomes a Buzzkill. BRICS seemed to have momentum during the Biden Years. In the brief interlude of the age of the Autopen, the vapid U.S. leadership was signaling that others were welcome to grapple to be the world’s reserve currency. Trump is back and the world has changed for the better. No one wants to push, shove, or grapple with Trump led America. Otherwise, they might get the standard tariff form letter with the name of the nation handwritten on the blank line.
More Indicators that Xi is under duress
It appears that finally, Xi’s reign of terror over his military and civilian seniors has reached a tipping point. It was inevitable that the Chinese Generals and Admirals would realize that their shelf life was already past the pull date and they needed to get together and do something before they disappeared themselves. On Fox News, Gordon Chang shared that Xi’s absence, “doesn’t make sense. There are many other countries at the BRICS summit, not just Brazil. To me, it’s extremely significant that Xi Jinping is not going. It suggests turbulence at home — there are signs he’s lost control of the military and that civilian rivals are reasserting power. This is a symptom of that.”
An alternative viewpoint seemed to be carrying the water for the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Genevieve Donnellon-May, a 2023 Yenching Global Scholar (Yenching is an Academy of Peking University, a University inside of Communist China) said about Xi’s absence in Modern Diplomacy, “It is a quiet signal, one that underscores China’s growing discomfort with a bloc that has evolved from a provocative counterweight to the West into a stage for symbolic declarations and internal friction. It is an unprecedented no-show that will be sorely felt while at the same time raising questions about China’s diplomatic priorities and possibly blunting Beijing’s ability to advance its agenda at the summit.” With the past dominance of BRICS by China, this viewpoint makes little sense.
Putin is a “No Show” (again)
Putin’s absence is more understandable. He has an international arrest warrant outstanding. Reuters reported, “Russian President Vladimir Putin will not travel to next week’s BRICS summit in Brazil because of an outstanding arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC), Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday. The ICC issued the warrant in 2023, just over a year after Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, accusing Putin of the war crime of deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine.” Putin did not travel to the last BRICS Conference in South Africa in August 2023 because of the same reason.
There was an address (virtually) of the BRICS Summit in Brazil by President Putin, but no appearance at all by President Xi. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the summit in Xi’s place, but knowing protocol, Li knew he was merely a seat warmer and that attempting to be a dynamic speaker would not end well. The Russian’s might be making some progress, at great cost, in Ukraine, but that is because China has made it clear that Russia cannot lose in Ukraine, after seeing their other chief ally, Iran, pummeled by Israel and the U.S. North Korea regulars, Chinese irregulars, Cubans, and now Laotians are helping to fill the front line ranks for Russia.
BRICS Backbenchers are in disarray
Other than India, the other members of BRICS are either in a very weakened position or pulling back from significant participation. Iran deployed their Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who took the place of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. There was a BRICS statement of support for Iran, “While the joint statement stopped short of naming the U.S. or Israel, it marked BRICS’ strongest rebuke to date. China and Russia both signaled alignment, with Moscow calling the strikes “unprovoked.”” Saudi Arabia is not a full member and sent their foreign minister for the second day of the conference. After the welcome Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar gave to President Trump during his State Visit, this was nominal Saudi acknowledgement of the existence of BRICS.
Host nation Brazil received a strong rebuke from President Trump who said on Truth Social, “I’ll be watching the WITCH HUNT of Jair Bolsonaro, his family, and thousands of his supporters, very closely.” Using the Secret Decoder Ring of diplomatic translation, President Luna should realize there is very possibly a Tariff Letter, at the least, ready to go with his name on it. BRICS seemed to be trending when the Autopen was reigning in America, but those days are gone. The mojo is back with America and that’s who most of the world’s countries want to be and be with.
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
