Hello and welcome to the working week.
Summer is barely over (thank you to my colleague Harvey for covering while I took a break), but we are already into the thick of a politically charged week, particularly in Europe. Of course, one wonders whether we ever stopped with this during the long sultry weeks of July and August.
On Monday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou holds an extraordinary meeting with MPs in Paris two weeks before they return to work, which (most importantly) includes a snap vote of confidence on his administration’s proposed €43.8bn budget cuts.
The stakes are high and the chances of victory slim. The 74-year-old veteran centrist is leading a fragile minority government. If Bayrou fails, France may struggle to pass a budget by the December deadline for the second consecutive time, and markets are already signalling alarm as French borrowing costs tick up. French banks are not too happy. As my colleagues explain, this is a PM who is isolated and his job is very much on the line.
While that is happening, Norwegians are going to the polls. The size of the Nordic nation’s welfare state has been an issue during campaigning, but a more significant one is wealth tax, as it has been in other European nations. Unlike countries where such a levy is now seriously being discussed, such as the UK, Norway already has a wealth tax. Intense debate has erupted during the campaign, however, on whether it should be scrapped or kept. The country’s oil fund is also (unusually) an issue, in particular its Israeli investments, as well as the cost of living.
And it has not been clear which of the main parties will succeed. The ruling centre-left has a consistent small lead in polls, but the race remains too close to call. Much will depend on which of the smallest parties on both the left and right come over the 4 per cent threshold to gain extra MPs.
In Brazil, we’re awaiting a verdict in the Supreme Court trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro on coup-plotting charges that could land him in jail for decades. A five-judge panel is due to vote on the charges this week. The case has divided Latin America’s biggest democracy and a guilty verdict will deepen the country’s diplomatic crisis with the US.
The UK will play host to one of the world’s biggest arms trade fairs. Defence companies, executives, armed forces people and anti-arms protesters will all converge in London’s Docklands for the biennial event.
In other corporate news, Apple will hold its annual launch event on Tuesday. The iPhone maker is seeking to build momentum after a series of good news stories about itself recently. Wall Street will be looking out for potential price increases on the new devices.
It has been a good month for Apple’s chief executive Tim Cook, clinching tariff relief pledges from Trump in return for a $600bn US investment promise. The Google antitrust ruling this week was better than expected, appearing to leave its multibillion-dollar payments from the search giant relatively unscathed. Apple also delivered better than expected results for the June quarter and its shares have now almost recovered to where they were at the start of the year as trade worries and AI road map concerns have weighed on the stock. However, Apple stock does tend to dip after announcements.
The economic data run includes inflation updates from the US and China, a revised second-quarter GDP estimate from Japan and a Eurozone interest rate announcement from the European Central Bank. Traders have scaled back expectations of further interest rate cuts since the EU struck a trade deal with the US in late July.
The latest Eurozone inflation figure underlined the sense among economists that Thursday’s decision will be to stick. If you are interested in the broader picture, try the FT inflation and interest rates tracker.
One more thing . . .
The beautiful people of New York will be gathering (again) for the annual fashion week, days after the death of Giorgio Armani. In case you missed it, here is the recent FT interview, which turned out to be the last, with one of the industry’s most iconic figures.
For more insider news, style advice and thoughtful commentary on the luxury sector, sign up to Fashion Matters by Elizabeth Paton, the FT’s new fashion editor. Click here to register and receive it every Thursday.
What are your plans for the coming seven days or indeed further forward into September? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply, and have a good week.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
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International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors meet in Vienna
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Philip Hoare becomes Balfour Beatty chief executive, succeeding Leo Quinn who steps down
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China: August trade figures
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Germany: July Industrial Production Index
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Japan: revised Q2 GDP estimate
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UK: KPMG and REC Report on Jobs
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US: The Conference Board Employment Index
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Results: Phoenix Group HY, SigmaRoc HY
Tuesday
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Apple holds its annual media event to launch new products. Devices expected to be announced include the new series of iPhones, following last year’s launch of the iPhone 16. The event’s invitation said “Awe dropping”
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France: July Industrial Production Index
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South Africa: Q2 GDP estimate
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UK: BRC August Retail Sales Monitor. Also, Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics
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US: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
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Results: Accesso Technology HY, Computacenter HY, Dunelm FY, Gamma Communications HY, James Fisher & Sons HY, Luceco HY, Midwich HY, Mobico HY, Oracle Q1, Somero Enterprises HY
Wednesday
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China: August consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
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US: August PPI inflation rate data
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Results: Associated British Foods trading update, Baloise Holding HY, Central Asia Metals HY, Gym Group HY, Inditex HY, Pan African Resources FY, Social Housing Reit HY, Vistry HY, Warpaint London HY, Wickes HY
Thursday
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Boeing chief executive Kelly Ortberg to speak at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference at Laguna Beach, California
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IEA Oil Market Report
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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
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EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement
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Turkey: interest rate announcement
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UK: Rics Residential Market Survey
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US: August CPI inflation rate data
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Results: Adobe Q3, Energean HY, Fevertree Drinks HY, John Lewis Partnership HY, Kroger Q2, Playtech HY, Trainline HY trading update
Friday
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EU: Q2 labour market statistics
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France: August CPI inflation rate data
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Germany: August CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data
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Spain: August CPI inflation rate data
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UK: July GDP estimate. Also, Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey, plus July index of production and services
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
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Cuba: feast day of Our Lady of Charity when devotees take to the streets in central Havana to celebrate their patron saint
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France: vote of confidence in the government
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Norway: voting begins in parliamentary elections
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UK: Accession Day marking the third year of King Charles’s reign, with gun salutes carried out around the country. Separately, the trades union movement’s annual TUC Congress continues in Brighton with a senior government minister due to address delegates on Tuesday
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US: First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia
Tuesday
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Australia: 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney. Speakers include Nuno Matos, chief executive of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
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North Korea: Republic Day, marking the date in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier
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UK: DSEI defence systems and equipment international exhibition, the world’s largest fully integrated defence and security exhibition, opens in London. Senior international trade and military experts are expected to attend the biennial event, which usually attracts protests outside by campaigners against military arms sales
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US: 80th session of the UN General Assembly begins in New York
Wednesday
Thursday
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Spain: Begoña Gómez, the wife of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and her aide, Cristina Álvarez, are due to testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation
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US: New York Fashion Week Spring-Summer 2026 begins
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
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65th anniversary of Opec
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Russia: local elections conclude.
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US: 77th Primetime Emmy Awards
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Vatican City: Pope Leo XIV celebrates his 70th birthday
