The European Central Bank (ECB) is urging citizens to “keep calm and carry cash.” The ominous message is a warning of trouble ahead. Bank runs, defaults, war, grid failures, pandemics—the current banking system cannot rely on what’s ahead. “Cash provides essential redundancy – a ‘spare tire’ – for the payment system,” the study’s authors write. “This redundancy is vital for any system, as no system is infallible.”
Indeed, no system is infallible. I have been consistently warning for decades that tangible assets are a necessity. Cash is freedom, which is precisely the reason that governments want to transition to digital and CBDC. Cash is anonymous, untraceable, and outside the immediate reach of bureaucrats. The entire fight against “money laundering” and the push to link biometric data to bank accounts is a direct assault on cash. Every penny will be tracked, and if they decide you owe taxes, they can simply deduct it without a trial.
However, you cannot simply flee with cash in a suitcase as the majority of nations consider that a crime and will seize your money. Customs agents do not need evidence of a crime, and even if the courts clear you of wrongdoing, there is no guarantee you will ever receive it back. Money is whatever someone is willing to accept as payment. I have long advocated for silver coinage that is easy to carry and identifiable as one such alternative, especially valuable if the currency fails.
“The sustained demand for banknotes has been amplified by sharp increases in public demand during major crises, which highlights the unique role and attributes of physical currency,” the ECB states. The 2014-15 sovereign debt crisis in Greece led to massive bank runs, and people had no access to their funds. There were surges in withdrawals during COVID and at the start of the Russia-Ukraine wa,r and the ECB knows that banks simply do not have the liquidity to provide customers with cash in the event of a true bank run.
Central banks are issuing specific instructions for civil protection. “For instance, authorities in the Netherlands, Austria and Finland suggest holding amounts ranging from approximately €70 to €100 per household member or enough to cover essential needs for about 72 hours. Some jurisdictions, like Finland, are even exploring “disruption-proof” ATMs to ensure access during digital failures.” The ECB is keenly aware that trouble is around the corner.
The recent power outages in Spain and Portugal led to a significant disruption in the financial system. Grids will be targeted during times of war. Nations bordering Russia have seen a much higher demand for cash withdrawals, “with issuance levels reaching six to ten standard deviations above their respective historical norms.” The ECB reports that this level of deviation is “highly unusual,” but in times of panic, people hoard as a survival tactic. There was a 36% spike in daily net banknote issuance during the first month of the war. Expect this figure to multiply when it becomes obvious that the war is expanding beyond Russia and Ukraine.
Keep cash on hand for day-to-day needs, but remember that its use will be increasingly limited, and its portability across borders almost impossible. The real hedge will remain tangible assets that cannot be canceled by government. Next year will be devastating. If you are in Europe, the best thing you can do is get your affairs in order and leave immediately.
