Hamas launched a murderous attack that provoked the absolute devastation of Gaza, the deaths of around 70,000 people, the destruction of that society, functionally, the wrecking of Israel’s image in much of the world. Many, many people believe that what Israel has done in Gaza is a genocide, including a not small proportion of young American Jews. You have seen a number of European countries in particular recognize Palestinian statehood. Is any of that meaningful? It’s more than meaningful. It’s probably the most powerful meaning of the whole affair. Don’t forget, with Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza, the whole traditional historical Israeli security doctrine has collapsed. The security doctrine was based on three elements. First, you do not allow the war to take place on your own territory. Oct. 7 showed that that’s not the case. Second, the war has to be short and finished very quickly. It did not happen. Third, the victory has to be decisive. Again, it did not happen. As a result, you find this tension between the political echelon and the military security echelons. Iran is still there. And it might come back faster than we think. Hezbollah is not disarmed. There are no prospects of its disarming. Hamas is back in Gaza. And as importantly, as some Israelis are increasingly talking about, the dependence of the United States has become so vast that it’s not very clear to what extent Israel is still a sovereign, independent country. If, after one week of fighting some irregular elements in Gaza, you need to have such a huge influx of American military aid, it makes you wonder to what extent you are free to do what you want to do. OK, without the United States, they will be in a very, very tenuous position, and they don’t have a solution for that. So you can tell me that militarily, the Israelis hurt Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, but strategically, they are much more vulnerable than they’ve ever been in their existence, in their whole existence.
