Bolivians are set to head to the polls to choose between two pro-market candidates in a presidential run-off that marks the end of nearly two decades of socialist rule and the start of a likely realignment towards the United States.
The vote on Sunday pits conservative former interim President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, 65, against centrist Senator and economist Rodrigo Paz, the 58-year-old son of the former left-wing President Jaime Zamora.
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Both men have promised to overhaul Bolivia’s crisis-hit economy and restore the relationship with the US after years of tense, often hostile ties under the left-wing governments of Evo Morales and his successor, outgoing President Luis Arce.
The governing Movement Towards Socialism party (MAS), racked by division, has failed to advance a candidate to the run-off election, meaning its leadership is slated to come to an end. Support for MAS, which has dominated Bolivian politics since Morales first took power in 2006, all but collapsed in the first round of voting in August.
The vote comes as the nation of 11 million faces its most serious economic crisis in decades. Inflation has surged above 20 percent, the country is short on fuel and dollars, and long queues at petrol stations have become a daily reality.
Polls show a tight race, with Quiroga holding a narrow lead. Voting stations open at 8am local time (12:00 GMT) and will close at 4pm (20:00 GMT), with initial results expected five hours later.
‘Situation is terrible’
Once South America’s fastest-growing economy, Bolivia has nearly depleted its foreign currency reserves after years of heavy subsidies and underinvestment in its gas industry.
“The situation is terrible, we don’t know what’s going to happen. Everything is very expensive,” Felicidad Flores, a 67-year-old street vendor in La Paz, told the AFP news agency. “I hope it doesn’t go up more.”
Driver Javier Quispe, 40, sitting in his truck in a kilometre-long fuel queue in the city, told the agency that Bolivians were “worse off than before”. “There isn’t much hope that things will change,” he said.
For many, the run-off signals a return to the market-friendly policies of the 1990s – an era that brought both economic opening and deep inequality.
“This election marks a political turning point,” said Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, told the Reuters news agency. Regardless of who wins, “Bolivia is heading in a new direction,” she said.
Analyst Daniela Osorio of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies told AFP that Bolivians’ patience was “running out”.
Once the election is over, she warned, “if the winner does not take measures to help the most vulnerable, this could lead to a social uprising”.
Contrasting visions
Both candidates have outlined different versions of reform.
Quiroga, who governed briefly from 2001 to 2002, has promised “radical change”, proposing opening the economy to international investment and foreign loans, and deep cuts to public spending and the closure or privatisation of loss-making state firms.
Paz advocates a slower path of “capitalism for all”, combining fiscal discipline and decentralisation with continued support for social programmes.
Each has proposed curbing the country’s universal fuel subsidy – keeping it only for public transport – to ease the strain on public finances.
Morales remains a player
Both candidates have courted the US for support.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week the vote represented “a transformative opportunity” for bilateral ties, with both candidates seeking “stronger, better relations with the United States” after decades of anti-US leadership.
Yet, with neither candidate likely to secure a majority in Congress and former leader Morales still commanding loyal grassroots support, governing may prove difficult.
Morales remains a political player despite being the target of an arrest warrant for human trafficking over an alleged sexual relationship with a minor, an accusation he denies. He was constitutionally barred from seeking another term but has called on his followers to boycott the vote.
“Even weakened, Morales remains a factor of potential destabilisation,” said Osorio.
Nearly eight million Bolivians are eligible to vote, and participation is mandatory. The winner will take office on November 8.
