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Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months.
Of the 50 largest metro area housing markets, 21 major metros now have more homes for sale than at the same point in 2019. Last year, that count was 13 markets.
These are the 21 major markets where homebuyers have gained the most leverage: Memphis, TN; Austin, TX; Phoenix, AZ; Tucson, AZ; Denver, CO; San Antonio, TX; Orlando, FL; Nashville, TN; Tampa, FL; Oklahoma City, OK; Dallas, TX; Charlotte, NC; Seattle, WA; Houston, TX; Jacksonville, FL; Las Vegas, NV; Raleigh, NC; Birmingham, AL; Miami, FL; San Francisco, CA; and Portland, OR.
Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are located in the Southeast, Southwest, and Mountain West regions. Many of those areas were home to many of the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the Pandemic Housing Boom, which stretched housing prices beyond local income levels.
“There are some markets within Florida that have struggled with some inventory balance issues,” D.R. Horton COO Michael Murray said on the company’s October 28 earnings call. “Notably, Jacksonville and Southwest Florida have had some excess inventory, and demand has been a while coming to absorb that. So that’s kind of what you’re seeing in the current quarter’s results in the Southeast for us.”
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Once pandemic-fueled domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida, and Austin, Texas, faced challenges as they had to rely on local incomes to sustain frothy home prices. The housing market softening in these areas was further accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sun Belt.
When and where needed, builders are often willing to reduce prices or make other affordability adjustments to maintain sales. These adjustments in the new construction market also create a cooling effect on the resale market, as some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift their focus to new homes where deals are still available.
In contrast, many Northeast and Midwest markets were less reliant on pandemic domestic migration and have less new home construction in progress. With lower exposure to that migration pullback demand shock—and fewer homebuilders doing large incentives—active inventory in these Midwest and Northeast regions has remained relatively tight, keeping the advantage in the hands of home sellers.
