US shutdown takes its toll on the data run

Hello and welcome to the working week, and one marked by a series of endings, both happy and somewhat concerning.

We can at least say the longest federal shutdown in 250 years of US history has now ended, enabling furloughed workers to be paid and public services to resume, but the impact on the run of economic data will be felt for a while — though some of the delayed figures should be with us fairly quickly.

Economists at Morgan Stanley have predicted the September non-farm payrolls data will probably be released a few days after the shutdown ends, as the data has already been collected.

The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its latest rate-setting meeting this Wednesday. However, the White House has said that October’s jobs and inflation data may never be published.

Elsewhere there is a steady run of economic data, with inflation a strong theme — the UK, Japan, the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Canada are all reporting — plus a rate-setting decision from China and a third-quarter GDP estimate from Japan.

Next on this list of potentially unsatisfactory endings is the COP30 climate summit in Belém. The Brazilian hosts have insisted the talks will end as scheduled on Friday, but this is a lofty goal when the last COP talks that ended on time were in 2003. Limited progress was made in the summit’s first week, but expect things to now heat up inside the venue in all senses of the phrase given temperatures reportedly hit 40°C as the air conditioning struggled. Premium subscribers can follow the dispatches on the ground from Moral Money’s Simon Mundy.

The G20 leaders’ two-day summit in Johannesburg this weekend marks the end of South Africa’s presidency of the organisation designed to foster international co-operation. This ending is likely to be a damp squib.

First, Donald Trump has prohibited American officials from attending the two-day event, despite the US taking over the G20 presidency. China’s President Xi Jinping is also set to skip the gathering, sending his Premier Li Qiang instead, according to state news agency Xinhua. Likewise, Argentina’s Javier Milei. Even the organisers have admitted the G20 has gone “a bit dormant”.

The end is also in sight for the current earnings season. The big theme this week is retailing, notably Walmart, Lowe’s, Target, Gap and Home Depot, which brings us back to the issue of measuring the state of the US economy. My colleague Elettra Ardissino on the Monetary Policy Radar has a warning that low-income American households are feeling the pinch. Brace yourselves.

One more thing . . . 

My rant about the early onset of Christmas events appears to have touched a nerve. Thank you to everyone who wrote in to express support, but I’m afraid to report the problem is worse than I thought. A few days ago I was in Manchester, thrilled to see that it is clearly getting its mojo back with ground being broken for what will be the UK’s tallest residential building. However, my stroll through the city centre was blocked at several points by clusters of wooden garden sheds dressed up as Britain’s largest Christmas market. This is not the kind of building the northern powerhouse needs.

When should we start the Christmas preparations? Am I too much of a Christmas grinch? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

And however you plan to spend your next seven days, I wish you well.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• A general meeting of Wood Group shareholders to vote on the acquisition of the company by Sidara

• Canada: October consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Italy: October CPI inflation rate data

• Japan: Q3 GDP estimate

• UK: Rightmove House Price Index

• Results: Big Yellow HY, Ninety One HY, Polar Capital HY, Sirius Real Estate HY

Tuesday

• Microsoft Ignite annual conference for developers and IT professionals officially opens in San Francisco and online, running until Friday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra to speak at the Knoop Annual Lecture at the University of Sheffield on ‘Unpacking the puzzle of income growth and weak consumption in the UK’

• The annual Festival of Economics, a four-day event with economists and experts from around the world, begins in the British city of Bristol

• Germany: Q3 labour market statistics

• UK: monthly card spending data from UK Finance

• US: October import and export price indices

• Results: Bertelsmann 9M, Crest Nicholson trading update, CVS Group trading update at AGM, Diploma FY, FirstGroup HY, Great Portland Estates HY, Greencore FY, Home Depot Q3, ICG HY, Imperial Brands FY, Klarna Q3, Medtronic Q2, RTL Q3

Wednesday

• Two-day USA-India Business Summit begins in Atlanta, Georgia

• Eurozone: October harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Germany: September manufacturing orders index

• UK: October CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Also, November Price Index of Private Rents and UK House Price Index

• US: minutes published from last rate-setting meeting. Also, September state job openings and labour turnover survey (Jolts) data

• Results: British Land HY, Hill & Smith trading update, James Hardie Industries Q2, Jet2 HY, Lowe’s Q3, Metro Q4, Nvidia Q3, Palo Alto Networks Q1, Progressive October earnings, Rotork trading update, Sage FY, Severn Trent HY, Smiths Group Q1 trading update at AGM, Target Q3, TJX Q3, Workspace Group HY

Thursday

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated discussion before the CFA Society of Indianapolis Annual Lunch and New Charterholder Ceremony

• China: interest rate announcement

• Eurozone: European Central Bank General Council meeting

• Germany: October industry PPI inflation rate data

• UK: British Retail Consortium’s November Consumer Sentiment Monitor

• US: The Conference Board leading index

• Results: Allegro Q3 trading update, Bath & Body Works Q3, Breedon trading statement, Close Brothers Q1 trading update at AGM, CMC Markets HY, Dr Martens HY, Gap Q3, Grainger FY, Halma HY, Intuit Q1, Investec HY, Jacobs Solutions Q4/FY, JD Sports Q3 trading update, Johnson Matthey HY, Liontrust Asset Management HY, LondonMetric Property HY, Mitie HY, Nationwide Building Society HY, Norcros HY, PayPoint HY, Ross Stores Q3, Tracsis FY, Walmart Q3, XPS Pensions HY

Friday

• Frankfurt European Banking Congress, including speeches from ECB president Christine Lagarde and Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel

• Karl Brunner Institute Swiss National Bank and its Watchers conference. Speakers include the Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan.

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: October CPI inflation rate data

• UK: October public sector finances and retail sales data for Great Britain

• US: October state employment data

• Results: Asos FY, Babcock HY, Tullow Oil November trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• China: Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn concludes five-day state visit to his kingdom’s near neighbour, the first by a Thai monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1975

• Russia: Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Council of Heads of Government begins a two-day meeting in Moscow ahead of Russia taking over the rotating presidency of the SCO from China

Tuesday

• Belgium: European Commission EU Enlargement Forum is held in Brussels, including an opening message from commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The theme is Completing the Union, Securing our Future

• Germany: European Digital Sovereignty summit in Berlin, co-hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s President Emmanuel Macron, and discussing Europe’s digital future, security and independence

• United Arab Emirates: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a state visit, including meeting UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan. He will then travel to South Africa to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit

• UK: former prime minister Sir John Major gives the Maurice Fraser Annual Lecture at the London School of Economics, titled “Britain in a changing world”. Separately, the Police Federation of England and Wales begins its two-day annual conference in Birmingham, and in Westminster the Treasury Committee holds an evidence session on cryptocurrency

• US: President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House

Wednesday

Thursday

• France: Beaujolais Nouveau Day, traditionally falling on the third Thursday of November, celebrates the release of the world-famous wine after the year’s harvest

• Tonga: parliamentary elections

• UK: November data published on young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) by age and gender. Read FT chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch’s deep dive on the dataset here

• US: funeral of former vice-president Dick Cheney held at Washington National Cathedral. Also today, the deadline for Andrew Mountbatten Windsor to respond to a letter issued by Democratic members of the House Oversight Committee requesting his co-operation with an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking

• Belgium: fourth EU-Indo Pacific Ministerial Forum, held in Brussels over two days

Friday

• Australia: the 2025 men’s Ashes series starts at Perth Stadium with the first of five five-day cricket test matches

• Brazil: COP30 summit is due to conclude in Belém

Saturday

Sunday

• Feast of Christ the King observed by the Catholic Church

• UK: Stir Up Sunday, traditionally the day when Christmas puddings and cakes are prepared ahead of the festive season on the last Sunday before Advent in the Church of England calendar