As President Donald Trump’s approval continues to decline, expect the attitudes toward the Democratic Party to drop as well.
You read that right: Not the Republican Party, but the Democratic Party, as many Americans blame Democrats for this second Trump administration. Voters understand that the Dems were unable to put the country ahead of obfuscation and identity politics in the 2024 presidential election.
Scientists develop theories through a systematic process that combines observation, experimentation and rigorous testing. The scientific method begins with careful observation of natural phenomena, followed by forming hypotheses — educated guesses that explain these observations.
Some hypotheses go on to be tested while others remain educated guesses. As a political scientist, here is my guess, based on experience and theoretical knowledge, on why the Democratic Party remains historically unpopular despite facing an even more disfavored president from the other party.
As the economy under Trump continues to worsen, his personal behavior becomes more unhinged and appalling, deportations without due process increase, and the pardons of his donors rack up, one would think that the favorability for the out-party would rise. But what we are seeing with polling is quite the opposite — even non-Republican voters are taking it out on the Democrats.
Ever since Trump was sworn in on Jan. 21, voters have been punishing Republicans electorally in the special and off-year elections. Democrats have been winning with double-digit margins. But none of that is translating to attitudes toward the Democratic Party as a whole; according to polling, sentiment toward the party remains quite ugly.
Democrats have an obvious branding problem as much of the public considers the party as “weak and woke.” But the issues with the party go beyond that. Americans feel as though they were purposefully deceived about former President Joe Biden’s health decline, they are angry that they were never given a choice on the party’s next nominee to go up against Trump.
And perhaps most importantly, the Democratic Party has yet to apologize to the American people for all of it.
It took only 32 hours after Biden stepped down from his presidential campaign for his vice president, Kamala Harris, to be named as the designated nominee. No primary process was offered, not even an abbreviated one.
Democrats are likely to balk at this theory, but the data does not lie. Democratic Party approval continues to slide downward, almost parallel with Trump’s.
A poll from Gallup in September put Democrats’ approval rating at a miserable 37% favorable and 63% unfavorable. This was down from 42% in September 2024 after Biden’s horrific debate performance in July of that year.
Even worse: A Quinnipiac Poll from December has congressional Democrats with only 18% approval and 73% disapproval. This is the worst approval rating for Democrats in Congress in the history of the Quinnipiac poll.
This is with the backdrop of Trump’s net approval rating being down 17%, with 39% approving, 56% disapproving, and 4% not sure, in a YouGov published on Dec. 27.
More concerning for the president is his net approval rating among working class Americans. Of those earning under $50,000 per year, the latest survey found only 29% said the U.S. was “generally headed in the right direction,” while 61% considered the country “off on the wrong track.”
So as Trump’s popularity is imploding, the Democrats have not been doing themselves any favors. On Dec. 18 it was reported that the Democratic National Committee will not publicly release or publish a report on its autopsy of the 2024 presidential campaign.
A spokeswoman for the DNC, who spoke to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity to share the thinking of DNC Chairman Ken Martin: “He believes that looking back so publicly and painfully at the past would prove counterproductive for the party as it tries next year to take back power in Congress.”
In my opinion, the DNC is making a huge mistake. To avoid factious fights within the party over its failings, they avoid taking any accountability to the country and are likely to make the same mistakes again.
If they want to increase their popularity with the American electorate, Democrats need to own up and apologize for not giving American voters better choices in the 2024 election.
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