QUESTION #1: Marty, will anyone in Washington call Trump and insist that he at least meet with you? You have the only geopolitical computer that has more than a 50 year track record?
QUESTION #2: You also said that Netanyahu would use at least tactical nukes on Iran. Would you put a probability on that?
QUESTION #3: Martin …
I’ve been an independent trader for 34 years now, but I’m sitting here looking at forward
Crude futures. Currently Dec 2028 futures is 69.91. This seems to be saying “the market” isn’t seeing a prolonged conflict yet Socrates is saying the opposite with potential $200+ Crude.
Dec 2028 Call Options are rediculously cheap.
I’m struggling a bit because we always say “the market is never wrong” . Somehow I cannot help
but feel like at least temporarily the market is wrong.
Interesting times for sure !
So gratefull for you, your team and Socrates !
Allen H
ANSWER: These are some loaded questions. Netanyahu is dead wrong and he has bullshitted Trump and now Trump admit that so we are in a death spiral geopolitically as well as economically. There is absolutely nobody in Washington willing to stick their neck out because they fear they would be fired or not endorsed for the Midterm election.
Iran has responded to Trump’s 48 hour deadline stating it will move to shut down the entire Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through with his threats to hit Iranian energy facilities. Trump said that the U.S. military would within 48 hours on his social media post Saturday evening that he would
“hit and obliterate [Iran’s] various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST” if Tehran doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz “without threat.”
Doing that will start the real energy crisis for that will be structural long-term damage not mere short-term rhetoric. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said in its statement Sunday that any companies with U.S. shares will be “completely destroyed” if Washington targets Iranian energy facilities. Energy infrastructure of nations that host U.S. military bases will be “lawful” targets, they made clear.
Israeli will use tactical nuclear strikes on Iranian military targets and I would place the probability at 60-75% (likely). The targets will be IRGC bases, missile sites, military command centers. The justification will be a claimed “proportional WMD response, deterring future use.” I do not expect this to be shared with Trump.
However, the forwards are reflecting the rhetoric that they do not expect this war to be a long protracted event. It is the near markets that are never wrong, not the distant forwards. There is also a liquidity crisis where lending has dried up because of war risks and this has led to private selling of gold especially coming from Dubai, yet the central bank increased its gold reserves significantly before the war. This will turn more into a crisis starting in mid April running especially into June. When the perception shifts to realizing this will be a Middle East War that will not go away in just a few weeks, then things will get much more heated.
