Hurricane Lowell is expected to create life-threatening conditions even as it’s forecast to sidestep the major Hawaiian islands west of the archipelago by Monday night.
It could remain a major hurricane — those with 111 mph or greater sustained winds — and is likely to create mudslides, as much as 10 inches of rain in Kauai, and life-threatening waves for parts of the island chain, the National Hurricane Center said.
The tropical cyclone reached Category 5, defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or greater, overnight Friday before losing some of its steam and settling into Category 4’s limits of sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph by Saturday.
Lowell appeared to be turning to the west-northwest Saturday, with the hurricane center saying this will likely trigger storm watch notices and other storm-related alerts for Kauai County and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument.
It was about 640 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, headed west-northwest at 7 mph, the hurricane center said, and was pushing out sustained winds of 145 mph.
The hurricane center’s forecast cone has Lowell passing just west of the islands, from south to north, on Monday night.
“Just because we’re on the edge of the cone doesn’t mean we’re safe,” John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said at a Friday news conference.
Maui could record up to 8 inches of rain, the National Hurricane Center said, but officials in the state are also focused on the storm’s impacts on the island of Kauai.
“We are taking Hurricane Lowell extremely seriously and preparing now, before conditions deteriorate,” Gov. Josh Green said in a statement Friday. “I urge everyone, especially those in Kauaʻi County, to complete their preparations, follow official alerts and stay away from floodwaters, dangerous surf and other hazardous areas.”
The governor’s office said the state was securing its harbors, deploying emergency personnel to strategic locations and monitoring dams for any possible breaches or overflows.
Parts of Oahu and the Big Island were hit with intense flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Lala last month.
Lowell is joined by two other tropical cyclones spinning in the northern half of the Pacific this week: Karina, a former Category 4 hurricane spinning about 755 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie, churning about 705 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.
Marie could produce high surf for Southern California during the holiday weekend, National Hurricane Center meteorologists said.
The trio is part of a Northeast Pacific hurricane season that includes 15 named storms to date, according to Colorado State University. The high number is likely boosted by unusually warm water and the presence of an El Niño weather phenomenon with potentially historic rain for California, experts have said.
Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central, said El Niño’s warm sea surface temperatures are fueling potent tropical cyclones ahead of fall.
“If we have extra fuel, we can push the accelerator down more and these storms can become more intense as a result,” he told NBC News.
The phenomenon has been changing as a result of global warming, earth scientists have said, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres saying Thursday that El Niño is “being supersized before our eyes.”
It’s a call to action, he said, to address climate change.
