This October is almost certainly going to be the hottest October ever recorded. Global temperatures this month are set to be around 1.76 degrees Celsius (about 3.17 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, surpassing the previous record set in 2023, researchers predict.
An especially hot October also puts 2026 on track to be among the hottest years ever recorded—if not the hottest—according to projections from climate scientists Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather. Their projection is based on data collected by the Europe-based Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
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Next year could be even more blistering. “This year’s record-setting October is a sign that the ‘Super El Niño’ is kicking into gear and will likely be the first in a series of record-setting months, culminating in a record-setting 2027,” Hausfather says.
El Niño is a cyclic climate pattern that occurs when part of the Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, affecting weather across the world. El Niño can exacerbate climate change—which is driven by the burning of fossil fuels—to boost global temperatures.
In 2023, also an El Niño year, October temperatures reached 1.7 degrees C (3.06 degrees F) above preindustrial levels, according to Dessler and Hausfather’s analysis. The year was the hottest ever recorded at the time, after which it was surpassed by 2024. The following year, 2025, was the third-hottest year ever recorded.
October’s likely record follows several other superlative moments so far in 2026, including the U.S.’s hottest September, hottest first eight months and hottest 12-month period ever recorded, as well as the hottest global ocean temperatures ever recorded.
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