This article was originally published by The Epoch Times: Could Regime Change Reform Iran?
Prior to the Iranian revolution in 1978–1979, Iran—historically known as Persia—had decent relations with the West. Under the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran traded with the West, and there were cultural exchanges with a number of countries. There was a substantial American and European presence in the country that interacted with Persians in one of the oldest monarchies in history. Although the Shah’s secret police could be ruthless at times, Iranians had some freedoms.
While Iraq and Syria have significant Shia Muslim populations, Iran is approximately 90 percent Shia Muslim. By contrast, most Muslim-dominant states have a vast majority of Sunni Muslim residents
During the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah R. Khomeini returned to Iran from his exile in France, and relations with the West changed dramatically. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and his family were forced to flee Iran, and the revolutionaries began to persecute Iranians who failed to meet the strict standards of the new Islamic Republic.
Moderate and reformist leaders were sidelined by theocratic leaders who pushed for a state ruled by political Islam. Over time, all branches of government were taken over by the mullahs, and religious ideology permeated all sectors of society. Resistance political movements to the regime have been marginalized and persecuted, while the rights of women have been minimized.
Since the 1980s, the goal of the regime has been the extinction of the Israeli state, coupled with hegemony over Sunni-dominant Arab states. Tehran has pursued these twin goals through a nuclear energy program and proxy warfare against not only Israel but also Arab states in the region.
For more than 40 years, the regime has played a role in destabilizing Afghanistan, Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. It has financed and supplied arms to rebel groups and terrorist groups in those regions.
Iran’s leaders often claim that their nuclear program has been developed for civilian use only, but why is much of it dispersed and far underground? Peaceful nuclear programs are routinely on the surface of the earth rather than deep underground. Now that Israel and American airstrikes have allegedly demolished Iran’s nuclear ambitions or set them back for years, one wonders what comes next.
Even if Iran had never sought to join the nuclear club, promoting freedom for the Iranian people and regime change from within might be acceptable because of Iran’s relentless sponsorship of terrorism and transnational repression over many decades. If Iran can’t be trusted with conventional weapons, how could it be trusted with weapons of mass destruction? So regardless of one’s opinions regarding Israel, a nuclear weapon in the hands of the mullahs is a chilling proposition. Moreover, Iran has never fully adhered to the inspection protocols of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Regime Change?
If regime change ever does unfold in Iran over the coming months or weeks, what might it look like? Would a new government be better or worse than the current regime? We already know that regime change engineered from the outside usually doesn’t pan out well. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam are prime examples of external pressures for regime change. Libya and Syria experienced a combination of internal and external forces, and the jury is still out on their future progress.
It’s common knowledge that, overall, the Iranian people are quite educated, and there have been intermittent freedom movements since the revolution, some of them led by women. Of course, these movements have been ruthlessly crushed through imprisonment and violence. In light of current events vis-à-vis the Iran–Israel conflict, would a liberation movement crystallize into a critical mass with vast numbers of Iranians demanding free enterprise, liberty, and the rule of law? Or would Iranians be persecuted all over again to close a political vacuum?
No one knows the answers to these speculative scenarios, but it’s helpful to discuss what might occur if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his regime decide, for a number of reasons, to relinquish power. Would Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah, return to Iran and strive to form a more democratic government? Currently, he is head of the exiled National Council of Iran that favors a separation of mosque and state, similar to the policy of the prior Pahlavi monarchy (1925–1979).
The tension between clerical and secular power has played a prominent role in Iran for a long time. Moreover, there is growing friction between the clerical rulers and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the population at large. These power struggles could intensify as Iran’s influence in the region diminishes.
If the clerics stepped down, would a civil war break out between political factions, or would the armed forces and police intervene to restore order to enable a functioning government to form? Would a new governing coalition be made up of some of the current leaders as well as reformists waiting in the wings? Or would an emerging government consist of all new faces? In any case, Iran requires economic development, and much of the population yearns for greater freedom and economic opportunity.
No one can predict the outcomes of possible regime change, but there is a possibility that it could generate greater freedom and improved relations with the region and the wider world. For now, it’s a waiting game in a fluid and volatile environment.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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