Russia’s nighttime drone incursion into Poland, forcing NATO fighter jets to scramble and shoot down some of the drones, was an enormous escalation by President Vladimir Putin of Russia. And for those of us in the West, it was a test.
It was a test, first of all, of whether we will take this violation of NATO territory seriously, or whether we will investigate, wring our hands and debate among ourselves whether the drone incursion was real. A lot about the event is still being figured out but this incursion appears intentional. One drone might go astray, but this was more than a dozen drones entering Polish territory, even as none appear to have been reported in Slovakia, Hungary or other neighboring countries.
That’s how Putin operates: He tests and measures the reaction. If this challenge to NATO is met with nothing more than indignant tweets, he will escalate further. He is trying to bully NATO countries into backing away from Ukraine, as he has bullied so many others.
This is not unexpected. Military officials have long been concerned that Putin might intensify Russia’s war in Ukraine by striking Ukrainian supply lines in Poland, but until now he apparently has calculated that the risks are not worth it. I wonder if he believes that President Donald Trump’s refusal to hold Moscow accountable so far makes this a good time to see if he can get away with attacks on NATO territory.
“Putin is testing our resolve to protect Poland and the Baltic nations,” Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois said. “These incursions cannot be ignored.”
Indeed, the West should respond in a measured way that raises the costs to Russia of this incursion and deters it from further attacks. That means inflicting pain, not speeches, on Moscow — even as we resist slipping into a broader war that entails risks of nuclear escalation.
One approach would be to offer Ukraine more intelligence and weaponry to strike bases in Russia from which drones are launched. Another would be to allocate more frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense. A third would be for European or NATO officials to start discussions on how “to defend airspace in a coordinated, thoughtful and joint manner,” as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now proposed.
And remember, if we in the West are aghast at these drones entering Polish air space, consider the Ukrainians who in the same night had to deal with attacks by about 415 drones and 43 missiles, according to Ukrainian military officials. And this happens in Ukraine night after night after night.
This was also a test of Trump: Will he ever stand up to Putin and impose the tougher sanctions he keeps talking about?
Trump first warned on Jan. 22 that he might have “no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” on Russia. In May, he threatened sanctions that would be “crushing for Russia.” Later he set a deadline of Aug. 8 for Putin to agree to a ceasefire, after which he would impose sanctions on Russia. That came and went with the sound of silence. So after this parade of bluster, of course Putin doesn’t take Trump’s warnings seriously.
Trump once criticized President Barack Obama for making a “blank threat” and in his first term declared: “The United States no longer makes empty threats. When I make promises, I keep them.” If so, Mr. President, it’s time to step up.
The third test represented by the Russian drone attack is of Western military capabilities. We have amazing aircraft carriers, tanks and bombers, but we don’t have cost-effective counters to cheap Russian, Chinese or Iranian drones. Russia and Ukraine have both rapidly improved their drone capabilities, both offensive and defensive, while the United States and other NATO countries have lagged.
Rather than scrambling fighter jets or firing million-dollar missiles to take down incoming drones, NATO needs to ramp up cheap countermeasures that are already in the pipeline.
I see no indication that Putin is interested in a peace deal with Ukraine. Rather, he thinks he can win — in part by getting the United States to retreat from the field and then by intimidating Europe and slaughtering Ukrainians in a war of attrition. Putin thinks he has more patience than Americans and Europeans, higher tolerance for casualties and a more shrewd long-term calculus.
There are no good choices here, but merely fussing and granting Putin effective impunity would be the worst choice.
