Anticipation and concern ahead of UK Budget and Thanksgiving

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Depending on where you are in the world, the next seven days are either a time of annual thankfulness, unrest or a preparation for one of the most thankless tasks in politics, trying to manage the public finances.

Taking the latter first, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday is the headline act this week.

We know too much already about what will have to be announced in this Budget and too little about the detail in what is a prime piece of Westminster theatre. Reeves has to find up to £30bn to meet her fiscal rule to balance the current budget by 2029-30, but she has ditched a proposal to raise income taxes. The fact that her speech is now expected to be a smorgasbord of measures — or “hotchpotch”, as the FT editorial board puts it — tells you everything you need to know about how much of a guessing game it is to see what will actually be announced.

However, there is a chance that if the chancellor could signal a credible plan to raise business investment and overhaul the tax system, she could come out of this stronger. But don’t bank on it. If you want to know more about what makes Reeves tick, there’s a magazine profile for that.

While most people in the US are looking forward to the Thanksgiving celebrations — read historian Simon Schama’s FT essay for the definitive explanation of this very American holiday — President Donald Trump is eager to get a deal done to end the Ukraine conflict. We have no idea if Trump’s radical plan (given the amount of land Ukraine is expected to surrender) will be achieved, but he clearly wants a settlement by the time his compatriots sit down to their turkey and pumpkin pie.

The US pause for celebration arrives just a few days after the Tokyo market takes a break for its Labor Thanksgiving Day, meaning the economic data run this week will be more subdued.

We are due a second estimate of US GDP in the third quarter, but haven’t had the first release yet, owing to recent furloughing of government statisticians, so this second print could be delayed too. The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book is released on Wednesday, however, and is eagerly awaited amid tensions between the hawks and doves within the central bank as, laid bare in last week’s release of the latest rate-setting meeting minutes.

Friday is busier elsewhere with inflation reports and GDP estimates from France, Canada and India. The week will also see a smattering of central banker speeches and British business leaders will be sharing their perspectives from the podium at the annual CBI conference on Monday.

We are at the end of the current earnings season, but there will be a smattering of UK retailer results announcements over the coming days, giving some indication of their confidence about consumer spending for the rest of the year.

It will be noisier in the US shops thanks to Black Friday, something that I wish had remained contained within the 50 states, not least because the name is meaningless for other economies. I feel another Week Ahead rant coming on. Talking of which . . . 

One more thing . . . 

Thank you to all of you who shared with me your unhappiness about Christmas coming too early. Advent begins this Sunday in many western church calendars, so at last I feel able to start getting excited about the season, perhaps by lighting a candle. However, it has to be slow steps. We’re still at least three weeks away from the annual Moules family tree purchase at London’s Columbia Road Flower Market.

How will you be avoiding Christmas over the next seven days? Do you have much to be thankful about? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the BratislavAI Forum, a three-day event to discuss artificial intelligence and education in Bratislava, Slovakia

• CBI annual conference in London. Scheduled speakers include business and trade secretary Peter Kyle, Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch, British Airways chair and chief Sean Doyle and investment minister Jason Stockwood

• Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day observed. Financial markets closed

• Singapore: October consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: Adzuna’s UK job market report

• Results: Agilent Technologies Q4, Cerillion FY, Julius Baer interim management statement, Keysight Technologies Q4, Prosus HY, Zoom Q3

Tuesday

• France: November Insee consumer confidence survey

• Germany: Q3 GDP estimate

• US: The Conference Board consumer confidence index

• Results: Alibaba Q2, Amentum Holdings Q4/FY, Analog Devices Q4, AO World HY, Autodesk Q3, Beazley Q3 trading statement, Best Buy Q3, Caledonia Investments HY, Compass Group FY, Cranswick HY, Dell Technologies Q3, easyJet FY, GB Group HY, HP Q4, Intertek trading update, JM Smucker Q2, Kingfisher Q3, Marston’s FY, Molten Ventures HY, NetApp Q2, Petershill Partners Q3 trading statement, Renew Holdings FY, Seraphim Space Investment Trust Q1, Supreme HY, Telecom Plus HY

Wednesday

• Australia: October CPI inflation rate data

• Japan: October services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US: Federal Reserve’s Beige Book

• Results: Deere & Co Q4, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare HY, Helical HY, Impax Asset Management Group FY, Pets at Home HY, Speedy Hire HY, Safestore Q4

• Germany: October labour market data

Thursday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland

• Speech by Asahi Noguchi, member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with local leaders in Oita

• China: October industrial profit figures

• EU: European Central Bank publishes minutes of its most recent rate-setting meeting.

• Germany: November GfK consumer climate survey

• UK: October capital issuance figures

• US: Thanksgiving holiday. Financial markets closed

• Results: Halfords HY, James Latham HY, Pennon HY, VP HY

Friday

• Make Amazon Pay campaign is planning protests and strikes against the global online retailer on one of the biggest shopping days in the US calendar.

• Canada: Q3 GDP estimate

• EU: ECB October consumer expectations survey

• France: November CPI and PPI inflation rate data, plus a Q3 GDP update

• Germany: November CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• India: Q2 GDP estimate

• UK: Q2 profitability of UK companies

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Angola: EU-African Union summit, a two-day meeting chaired by Angolan President João Lourenço and European Council president António Costa. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will also attend

• Belgium: EU trade ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the state of play and prospects for EU-US trade relations, and will be joined by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss transatlantic trade co-operation

• Switzerland: 14th UN Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva, and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation

• UK: BBC chair Dr Samir Shah and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from MPs on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news programme Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness

Tuesday

• UN International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, held to coincide with the launch of the UNITE campaign, involving 16 days of activism concluding on International Human Rights Day

• Japan: Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama

• UK: Gambling Commission publishes the latest statistics for each part of the sector it regulates

Wednesday

• OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution

• UK: Budget Day, followed by the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic forecasts for the British economy

Thursday

• Kazakhstan: launch scheduled of the Roscosmos Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft, carrying cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergey Mikaev and Nasa astronaut Chris Williams to the International Space Station

• St Vincent and the Grenadines: parliamentary elections

• Turkey: Pope Leo XIV begins four-day apostolic visit, including a pilgrimage to Iznik on the 1,700th anniversary of the First Council of Nicaea

• US: Thanksgiving

Friday

• International Buy Nothing Day, a global campaign to encourage people to take a break from shopping for 24 hours to highlight the environmental and ethical consequences of consumerism

• Germany: Nuremberg’s Christmas market, one of the most famous in Europe, opens with its traditional fanfare in the city’s main square

• US: Black Friday, the traditional beginning of the American Christmas shopping season, the day after Thanksgiving, when retailers offer big savings to entice shoppers and supposedly haul their financial accounts “back in the black”

Saturday

• UK: Your Party conference in Liverpool, the first for the new (and troubled) political party founded by former Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn and former Labour MP Zarah Sultana

Sunday

• First Day of Advent, the beginning of the Christian liturgical calendar and the countdown to Christmas

• Opec’s 12 member countries and non-Opec countries, including Russia, meet to discuss market conditions and decide on further production adjustments

• Honduras: presidential, parliamentary and local elections

• Kyrgyzstan: parliamentary elections

• UK: St Andrew’s day, celebrated in Scotland