PUTIN SHAPES THE TERMS
However, what is more significant is the symbolism behind Mr Trump’s conversations with Mr Putin and Mr Zelenskyy. The Russian president still seems to retain the ability to do just enough to prevent Mr Trump from decisively throwing his weight behind Ukraine’s war effort. If nothing else, he has bought Russia yet more time to pursue its war against Ukraine.
A new round of high-level talks between American and Russian officials is about to commence this week, with the US delegation to be led by Mr Trump’s Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio. Mr Trump and Mr Putin agreed that they would then meet in person “to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end”.
No clear timeline has been attached to these talks, and no deadline has been set for a presidential summit. Not that deadlines and ultimatums have mattered much in the past, but not having any gives Mr Putin even more room to try and wear Ukraine down by continuing his attacks against critical infrastructure and making further territorial gains along the frontlines in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
It also means that any ceasefire is off the table for now, as are direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. If anything, we are now much closer again to Mr Putin’s likely preferred scenario of negotiating an end to the war against Ukraine through a deal with the US, thereby cutting out both Kyiv and its European allies.
It is not clear how Mr Putin managed to resell this idea to Mr Trump, but the fact that he apparently has underscores the volatility of Mr Trump’s approach to ending the war. What is more, Mr Putin may not even want, let alone need, his latest ploy to work. He is still convinced that because of Russia’s manpower advantage, Moscow can ultimately defeat Ukraine militarily. All he needs to do this, and has just done again, is keep the US out of the war.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Studies.
