THE PROBLEM OF COUNTING SHIPS
Before the conflict broke out, counting ships was relatively simple. Oil tankers broadcast their position via a gadget called an Automatic Identification System (AIS) – a transponder that provides, in real time, the name of the vessel and its latitude, longitude, heading and speed, among other information. Oil tankers would typically travel from loading port to destination without stops. Whenever a tanker turned off its AIS – “going dark” in the industry parlance – satellite pictures filled in most of the gaps, with multiple companies selling imagery showing the region almost in real time.
Today, tanker trackers have three problems. First, nearly all vessels have gone dark, switching off their AIS.
Second, most satellite-imagery vendors, under pressure from Washington, have stopped selling their pictures, particularly those created in high resolution.
Third, rather than travelling from origin to destination in a single voyage, most of the cargo flows involve one – or even several – ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas, further complicating tracking.
The market currently relies on just two satellites, both operated by the European Union. Rather than multiple pictures per day, the market is left with a single snapshot every three to five days of the Strait of Hormuz – and a lot can happen between each of those satellite overpasses.
Worse, their orbits are well known, allowing companies and traders to adjust when to load at any port to avoid being caught by the celestial candid cameras. From time to time, some AIS data comes along, too.
