WHAT UKRAINE SHOULD DEMAND
While US negotiators are in for a tough fight, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces a seemingly impossible challenge. But Ukraine can’t be kept totally out of any negotiations.
Zelenskyy has one small bargaining chip in the form of a relatively tiny chunk of Russian land he holds, and a larger one in his outmanned but fearsome fighting force. Plus, he still has strong European backing.
For Zelenskyy and his supporters, there will be three crucial elements in any “least worst” plan.
The first will be no further territorial concessions. While losing both Crimea and the four provinces of Donbas is bad enough, he must draw a line against any further concessions – for example, giving up Kharkiv, the nation’s second largest city, nestled on the Ukrainian-Russian border.
A second absolute is some credible security guarantee that prevents Putin from simply rearming and renewing his illegal invasion in a few years. Team Trump ruled out US boots on the ground before negotiations even started, and Putin would never go for direct NATO intervention.
But European troops could be stationed in Ukraine, effectively acting as a tripwire. France, the UK, the Baltic states and possibly Poland have indicated potential willingness.
Another, less likely, security guarantee might be that if Putin reinvaded, NATO would immediately admit Ukraine.
Finally, the Ukrainians need provision for continued military assistance from the US and Europe. The combined defence budget of the NATO nations is nearly US$1.5 trillion. There is plenty of capacity to provide Ukraine with more fighter aircraft, surface-to-surface missiles, high-tech unmanned hardware and cyber and intelligence support.
