COMMENT: Well, Marty, the Democrats are calling for an investigation because some people bought calls on the market on the 7th, and they are claiming it must have been Trump’s billionaire buddies who had inside information that he would reverse.
Will they come after you and claim it wasn’t your model again, but inside info? This hatred of Trump is destroying the country. I can now see why your computer forecasts the breakup of the United States. It appears to be inevitable.
UT
REPLY: This has been my curse: discovering something that people do not think exists. What Larry Summers says here is that if someone could forecast, then it would be self-fulfilling. I have tried to show society that there is order within what they think is chaos. The majority remain ignorant of the patterns right before their eyes.
I have Chaos models that I created that exposed market, which were by no means a random walk through the park like some drunk, and you do not know if he will fall to the left or right. I am so tired of being blamed for stupid shit these morons seem to be incapable to seeing the pattern right before their eyes.
What I have learned in trading since the late 1960s is that there is a time and place for everything. The key is being able to differentiate between short-term moves and major trend changes. The majority must always be wrong, and they are easily moved to follow the crowd. Stanley Milgram discovered that, and many did not like his findings because they were part of that 80% and wanted to think they were independent, but they were not.
Hermann Goring spoke the truth at his Nuremberg trial. Again, nobody wanted to believe that humanity is just a herd with raw animal instincts. It is easy to create a panic when everyone is together on one side, be it up or down, in a market.
I have often said that we are no different from a herd of zebras. One may see or just think they saw a lion approaching and start to run. The others run because he is running and has never seen anything. They run because everyone else is running. We do the same thing. Oh, everyone is selling because of Trump’s tariffs? Ok, tariffs must be bad, they assume. Do they independently look at history? Of course not!
My goal was not to sell advice but to run my own business. I used to provide the analysis for free to clients. I only ended up in the advice business after I announced I would retire from market making. The advice I gave clients was when the best time to lock in gold was. I made the same percentage regardless of the price. When I said I was retiring, they wanted me to continue to provide the advice. I was offered $2,000 an hour because I kept saying no. I gave it a shot, I figured I still wanted to talk to people back then. I spun off the advice at my clients’ request. This was never a career that I had aspired to. I didn’t even think it was some career.
I started at $2,000 an hour back in 1980. The Wall Street Journal heard about me and claimed they wanted to do a piece on the consulting industry in 1983. They interviewed some clients and were shocked. They told me that my clients said if I charged $10,000 an hour, they would pay it. I did not ask my clients the size of what I was advising on until I told a client to get out of a trade, which was a spread between the Deutsche Mark and the Japanese Yen in 1982.
The client asked me how to get out. I just said at the market. I left the office, and when I got home, the phone was going crazy. They were talking about the DM/JY cross moving 100bps, which was a massive move for those days. I asked what was going on, and nobody knew. They speculated that it was the Bank of Japan intervention. I thought my client got killed. I called him and asked: Did you get out of that trade? He laughed, and yes. Thank you. He added that was me! I was stunned. I asked: How many contracts did you have? He was trading at the billion-dollar level in 1982. After that, I made clients reveal the size of what I was advising on, and we entered into confidentiality agreements/non-disclosure agreements.
I had the equivalent of 50% of the value of the US National Debt under contract when I testified before Congress. I had more high-end clients than all the bankers in NYC combined. As one employee who came to work for me did his due diligence and asked Goldman Sachs about me, and they said they had thought they could take me out, but I usually won.
This is why I have always been targeted. The CFTC even filed a subpoena to force me to turn over a list of all my clients, accusing me in court of manipulating the entire world economy. My lawyer made a joke of it and said: Yes, Your Honor, including your salary. He then asked what was the CFTC’s jurisdiction? Where was the statute that it was a crime to manipulate the world economy? The judge laughed and denied the CFTC’s subpoena.
I have been plagued, so the bankers saw me as a threat to their manipulations. They never understood that it was not my personal opinion. Some have tried to explain that TIME is everything. But the typical comments of Larry Summers still dominate Washington. They would rather think there must have been some inside trading that created a new scandal to stop Trump, and they do not care if it is true or not. They just have to win and tear the country apart in the process.
I had dinner in Tokyo with the head of Deutsche Bank. He asked me how my company got so big. I said I did not trade against my clients. I was an adviser duty-bound to protect my clients, not view them as adversaries to make money off of. Bankers trade against their clients – I sought to help my clients.
Once you understand the Timing Arrays and the Reveral System, it will help you look at the markets with a cool and calm eye and not get all hysterical as we have seen these past two weeks. TIME is everything. Bull vs Bear markets are decided at the Monthly Level – not some daily sharp move as Bloomberg declared it was a bear market.
TIME is the next frontier. The sequel to movie on me entitled The Forecaster may be out by the end of the month. Then they are making a Hollywood version of my career with actors. I am excited about that, for this is the biggest production company with plenty of Oscars. They can see the cycles and want to show the world that there is order within this appearance of chaos. If they can accomplish that, then my mission in life will be complete. Hopefully, I leave behind a better world for my grandkids.
