The contagion of war is spreading like wildfire. Venezuela has been feuding with the United States since 2019, when all communication came to a standstill. In recent weeks, the US placed a $50 million bounty on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and has accused him of aiding the world’s top drug traffickers. The US has sent thousands of illegal Venezuelan migrants back to Venezuela despite pushback from the government. Tensions have boiled over after Trump visited with Putin.
Did Putin give Trump the green light to move in on Venezuela? Deep ties with Russia have protected Venezuela, but all alliances can come to an end with the proper incentives. On Monday, over four and a half MILLION Venezuelan troops were deployed after it was announced that US warships were circling Venezuela. “This week, I will activate a special plan with more than 4.5 million militiamen to ensure coverage of the entire national territory — militias that are prepared, activated and armed,” Maduro announced on state television. “The empire has gone mad and has renewed its threats to Venezuela’s peace and tranquility,” Maduro continued.
Maduro was indicted in 2020 during Trump’s first term under suspicion of narco-terrorism. The US placed a $15 million bounty on Maduro, which was later raised to $25 million under Biden but powerful people are protecting the Venezuelan president.
It is peculiar that the US acted within days of Trump’s discussion with Putin. The only obstacle for the US would have been Russia and the risk of starting yet another proxy war. China is also aligned with Venezuela, but the CCP has been outwardly neutral when it comes to foreign wars. China’s main concern is maintaining the One China policy and free trade. It is unlikely to move when it comes to Venezuela unless it directly impacts national interest.
The model had been targeting the week of August 18 as the beginning of heightened tensions and a turning point on the Panic Cycle. Not only did we see an unexpected meeting between Russian and American leaders, but the US began to encircle Venezuela, and Israel called up its reserve troops to continue its attack on Gaza. A nation would not ready 4.5 million troops if it did not suspect a potential attack. It is curious timing. Venezuela is an oil-rich country, and the US is keen to feed its own self-interests under Trump. Agreeing to abandon Venezuela could be a strategic move on Russia’s part to garner support from the largest member of NATO, which is at the head of peace talks.
