The NFL schedule makers hit a couple of home runs when it came to putting together the schedule for this year’s Thanksgiving slate of games. All three games on Thursday have massive playoff implications, with the winners and losers seeing potentially significant swings in their playoff odds.
Things get started with the first game of the day and a massive NFC North clash in Detroit.
The Lions entered the season as Super Bowl contenders but enter Thanksgiving on the outside of the NFC playoff picture. Going into the week their playoff odds still sit at a very solid 75%, but would increase to 86% with a win. They would drop to 60% with a loss.
A win would tie them with the San Francisco 49ers for the final wild-card spot, and move them to within a half game of the Packers. A loss would not only keep them below San Francisco and drop them to a game-and-a-half behind the Packers, it would also give the Packers the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker.
Green Bay, meanwhile, enters the game with a 78% playoff probability and could go as high as 92% with a win. A loss takes them down to 69%.
The winner of this game could also find itself in first place in the NFC North by Saturday if the Chicago Bears were to lose their Black Friday game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
It is a massive game.
The Chiefs may have saved their playoff chances with Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts, and now they need to do it again on the road in Dallas.
The Chiefs enter Thursday’s game with a 52% playoff probability, and could increase up to 61% with a win. A loss, however, would drop them all the way down to only 35%. That is a potential 26 point swing. Unless the Chiefs go on a major winning streak over the next few weeks pretty much every game they play is going to have this sort of impact on their chances.
Dallas is desperately trying to stay in the race, and could see its playoff probability go up to 15% in the NFC with a win. A loss would probably be a knockout punch as their chances would go down to just 4%.
The big story here for the Bengals is the return of starting quarterback Joe Burrow, but it is probably way too little, way too late to salvage their playoff chances. The Ravens, however, have everything to play for and need to keep winning. After starting the season 1-5 they have gone on a five-game winning streak that has put them back into the top spot in the AFC North.
A win on Thursday, combined with a Pittsburgh Steelers loss on Sunday (very possible against the Buffalo Bills) would give them a full one-game lead in the division with two head-to-head matchups remaining.
A win would move their playoff chances from 69% to 75%, while a loss would still only drop them down to 55%.
