One of the most riveting parts of the annual NCAA Tournament in men’s college basketball is the frequent upsets that occur, especially in the event’s first and second rounds.
Oftentimes, these stunners entail mid-major programs knocking off the big boys in the power conferences, and it’s a glorious sight to see.
With the transfer portal’s explosion, along with schools paying their athletes directly in revenue-sharing and third-party NIL deals, more parity has arrived in the sport.
The 2025-26 regular season has been undeniably exciting, and the upcoming Big Dance should be tantalizing. Sure, the high seeds from the power leagues are likely to journey far in the NCAA Tournament, but here are five mid-major programs, in alphabetical order, that can also venture deep into this campaign’s March Madness.
One quick note: While No. 12 Gonzaga (24-2 overall) plays in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs won’t be included here, given that they annually play a challenging non-conference slate and have reached two national championship games in recent years (2017 and 2021).
Five mid-major teams primed for Big Dance success
Saint Louis Billikens
Conference: Atlantic 10 Conference
Record: 23-1
AP top-25 ranking: No. 18
NCAA NET ranking: No. 16
KenPom rating: No. 24
Saint Louis is having a tremendous 2025-26 campaign. The Billikens are 5-1 in quadrant-one/quadrant-two games, and they average a whopping 91.0 points per contest. Plus, Saint Louis is in the top 25 of KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. It is a well-balanced squad.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Conference: West Coast Conference
Record: 22-4
AP top-25 ranking: Receiving votes (1)
NCAA NET ranking: No. 28
KenPom rating: No. 31
The Gaels are 0-3 in quadrant-one opportunities, which is concerning. But in the NCAA Tournament, a strong defense can go a long way. Saint Mary’s allows just 64.1 points per encounter, which is in the top 10 nationally, and the team’s adjusted defensive efficiency via KenPom is No. 25.
San Diego State Aztecs
Conference: Mountain West Conference
Record: 17-6
AP top-25 ranking: NA
NCAA NET ranking: No. 42
KenPom rating: No. 43
The Aztecs are battle-tested, playing nine combined games in quadrant one/quadrant two. However, they’ve only sported a 4-5 mark, including just 1-5 in quad one. The good news for San Diego State is that it possesses a stellar defense that is No. 15 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs hold their foes to 39.4 percent shooting from the field, which is also No. 15 nationally.
Santa Clara Broncos
Conference: West Coast Conference
Record: 22-5
AP top-25 ranking: Receiving votes (2)
NCAA NET ranking: No. 41
KenPom rating: No. 38
The Broncos are a quality offensive team, averaging 83.6 points per game, which is No. 42 around the country. Their adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, is No. 29. In quadrant-one/quadrant-two contests, Santa Clara is holding its own at 6-4 overall. The Broncos host Gonzaga on Saturday night in an affair that could determine the WCC regular-season crown.
Utah State Aggies
Conference: Mountain West Conference
Record: 21-3
AP top-25 ranking: Receiving votes (15)
NCAA NET ranking: No. 23
KenPom rating: No. 25
The Aggies excel on both ends of the floor, residing inside the top 40 of KenPom in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. They score 84.1 points per game, which is No. 34 nationwide. Yet Utah State is also solid on defense, giving up a respectable 68.9 points per encounter. The Aggies play well against great competition, going a combined 8-2 in quadrant-one/quadrant-two games.
