Hello and welcome to the working week. In these in-between days when the corporate, economic and political diaries are as empty as your advent calendar, it has become a tradition of this newsletter to take a long look forward to the year ahead. So buckle up.
The headline act for 2025 is the FT’s man of the year for 2024, Donald Trump, as he returns to the White House after his inauguration on January 20.
The president-elect’s threats to impose tariffs, carry out mass deportations and slash taxes and regulations could have wide-ranging economic implications, according to investors and analysts. Some economists are concerned that these policies may lead to higher inflation, lower growth and increased volatility.
The prospect of a sweeping policy overhaul is already looming large over the Federal Reserve. The US central bank trimmed interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December — its third consecutive reduction — but projections point to half as many rate cuts in 2025 than were forecast back in September. This has already upset markets.
Political change is also in the air for Europe’s largest economy. Voters in Germany will go to the polls on February 23 after chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition imploded under the strain of the country’s economic and security challenges. The German economy is at risk of contraction in 2025 and the attack carried out by a Saudi national on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing five and injuring more than 200, has left the country in a state of shock. Read here for the main election pledges of the country’s political parties.
Elsewhere in Europe other changes of leadership are a possibility. France’s next scheduled presidential election is more than two years away but there is much speculation that the incumbent Emmanuel Macron will resign before the end of his term, according to FT columnist Gideon Rachman.
We enter another year of war in the Middle East and Ukraine, which means that Russia’s Vladimir Putin will once again be a key figure in the news. This Tuesday marks 25 years since he took over from Boris Yeltsin as acting president of Russia, and May 7 next year will be the quarter-century anniversary of his first presidential inauguration.
In the UK the year will be a testing ground for some of the Labour government’s election manifesto pledges. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will face increasing pressure to prove that the party’s policies are fostering economic growth. The introduction of VAT on private school fees will come into force on January 1, while on April 1 private schools will lose the right to claim charitable business rate relief. Expect a lot of angry parents.
The UK economic outlook is challenging. The Bank of England last month warned that stubborn inflation would prevent it from cutting interest rates quickly. Traders expect the central bank to make two quarter-point rate cuts next year — compared with the four the market expected as recently as October.
Corporate news is set to be driven by the themes of artificial intelligence and green technology, perhaps increasing tensions between the west and China.
Electric vehicles are expected to outsell cars with internal combustion engines in China for the first time in 2025, according to data compiled by the FT from investment banks and research groups. One good theme for the coming year (IMHO) is that the momentum for the hype about AI is likely to fade, but the technology boom will continue as businesses claim significant — if unproven — gains from AI deployments, according to my colleague on the US west coast Richard Waters. Click here for his big four AI predictions for the coming year.
Read on for a month-by-month breakdown of the key events and anniversaries of 2025.
One more thing . . .
What are your predictions for the coming 12 months? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.
Normal service for The Week Ahead will return next Sunday with my colleague Harvey Nriapia back in the writer’s chair. In the meantime I wish you all a joyful new year and will be back again in January.
Key world, economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data in 2025.
January
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EU: Poland assumes the revolving presidency of the bloc on January 1
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US: Donald Trump will officially become the 47th US President at a ceremony in Washington on January 20
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Switzerland: The five-day gathering of global political and business leaders begins in the Alpine ski resort of Davos from January 20. The theme of this year’s event is Collaboration for the Intelligent Age
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China: Lunar New Year. The Year of the Wood Snake begins on January 29. In Chinese culture, the snake symbolises wisdom and agility while wood stands for growth, flexibility and tolerance
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UK: fifth anniversary of Britain leaving the EU on January 31. Safety and security declarations for EU imports to Great Britain come into force. Also, VAT will be introduced for private school fees on January 1
February
March
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60th anniversary of the first spacewalk on March 18
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Fifth anniversary of the World Health Organization officially declaring a Covid-19 pandemic on March 11
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US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a government shutdown on March 14
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UK: energy regulator Ofgem introduces a new common minimum capital requirement for domestic suppliers on March 31 to ensure that they have a level of capital to make them more resilient to any sudden changes in market conditions and able to absorb any market shocks
April
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15th anniversary of the iPad being launched on April 3
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UK: Removal of the eligibility for private schools for charitable business rate relief takes effect on April 1
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US: 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolutionary War, also known as the War of Independence, on 19 April 1775, with the battles of Concord and Lexington, a year before the Declaration of Independence was signed
May
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UK: England holds local elections on May 1
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Special VE Day events to mark the 80th anniversary of Germany’s formal and unconditional surrender at the end of the second world war on May 7
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Albania: parliamentary elections on May 11
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Philippines: local and national elections on May 12
June
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UK: sale of disposable vapes banned from June 1, as confirmed last October by the government. The NHS says the long-term risks of vaping remain unknown
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Burundi: parliamentary and local elections on June 5
July
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EU: Denmark takes over the revolving presidency of the bloc on July 1
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Switzerland: Women’s Euro 2025 football tournament kicks off on July 2
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UK: train passenger services between London and Essex return to public ownership after c2c’s contract with the Department for Transport expires on July 20, as part of the government’s plan to renationalise the rail network
August
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V-J Day takes on a special significance with the 80th anniversary both of the end of the war, but also the first use of the atomic bomb, dropped on Hiroshima on August 6. Japan surrendered on August 15.
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80th anniversary of George Orwell’s Animal Farm, published on August 17
September
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UK: Defence and Security Equipment International — the world’s largest fully integrated defence and security exhibition — runs at London’s Excel Centre from September 9-12. The biennial event usually attracts protests outside by campaigners against military arms sales
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Russia: local elections begin on September 12
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Malawi: presidential and parliamentary elections on September 16
October
November
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US: gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia on November 4. The respective incumbents, governors Phil Murphy and Glenn Youngkin, are term-limited and cannot seek re-election
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UK: 60th anniversary of the abolition of the death penalty on November 8
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Germany: 80th anniversary of the Nuremberg trials of Nazi war criminals, which began on November 20
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South Africa: G20 Leaders’ Summit, attended by heads of government from the 19 leading industrialised nations plus the EU and African Union, held in Johannesburg from November 22-23
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Honduras: presidential, parliamentary and local elections on November 30
December
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US takes over one-year presidency of the G20 on December 1
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Chile: presidential election run-off on December 14
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UK: December 21 marks the 70th anniversary of Cardiff becoming the capital of Wales
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December 24 is the centenary of the publication of the first Winnie the Pooh book by British author AA Milne
