Texas Longhorns junior Arch Manning entered the season as the No. 1 quarterback prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft (scheduled April 29-May in Washington). Now, some scouts don’t view him as the No. 2 or even No. 3 QB.
Arch Manning drops in latest NFL Draft rankings
ESPN’s Jordan Reid released his updated big board Thursday, listing Manning as his QB4 behind Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss Rebels), Darian Mensah (Miami Hurricanes) and Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State Cowboys). He ranks No. 17 overall in the pool of 50 players.
Reid likes Manning’s combination of size (6-foot-4, 222 pounds), arm strength and mobility. However, the scout feels he has room for improvement when it comes to reading defenses.
“Manning is still only at his best with concepts that allow him to execute simple reads,” wrote Reid. “When trying to make full-field progressions, he can hold onto the ball too long. There are also too many moments when poor footwork and mechanics lead to scattershot ball placement.”
Manning’s indecision showed in a 20-17 Week 4 win over the Tennessee Volunteers. The QB was flagged for two illegal forward passes.
So, Manning has struggled to look the part of a QB1, even though the No. 1-ranked Longhorns are 4-0. But not all blame should fall on the QB. Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the offensive coaching staff may not be playing to his strengths.
How Texas coaches can help Arch Manning
The Longhorns are aiming to transform Manning into a purer passer but may be doing so at the cost of his greatest asset: his mobility.
Texas is calling fewer run plays for Manning this season to protect him. Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 designed runs last season and 32 scrambles. Designed runs are plays where the coach calls the QB’s number, while scrambles are when he runs while improvising. This season, he has scrambled 20 times and had four designed runs.
Not letting Manning run could be making him feel uncomfortable, leading to overthinking and missed reads. The two penalties against Tennessee serve as an example. It may also explain why he’s taking much longer to throw. Per PFF, he’s averaging 3.13 seconds to throw, up from 2.88 in 2025.
Texas coaches may argue Manning could get hurt if he runs too much. But what else could injure him? Taking too many sacks.
Manning has taken 10 sacks in 2026, posting an alarming 23.3 percent pressure-to-sack ratio (percent of QB pressures that end in a sack). In 2025, he took 22 sacks, posting a much better 13.3 percent pressure-to-sack ratio.
For years, coaches and analysts have said, “QBs must stay in the pocket.” But they shouldn’t stay there for too long—the QBs who don’t take fewer sacks and win more.
See Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix as an example. Since 2024, he’s tied for third in the league in wins (26). It’s no coincidence he’s one of the league’s least-sacked QBs. Nix is tied for ninth in pressure-to-sack ratio (11.6 percent) and finished second last season (9.5 percent).
Texas has a bye week on Saturday before facing the 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas on Oct. 10 (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET). During the break, Longhorns coaches should draw up run plays for Manning, which may help him look like a potential QB1 in the draft again.
