Japan’s LDP loses its parliamentary majority

In today’s newsletter:

• Japan’s ruling coalition loses its majority

• Shanghai cracks down on Halloween

• Lunch with sinologist Li Cheng

Good morning. Japan’s ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic party has lost its parliamentary majority, in a stunning rebuke by voters that plunges the country into political uncertainty.

The LDP’s worst electoral reversal for 15 years, which will leave the party struggling to govern and recently anointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under pressure to resign, came in a snap election he called to try to draw a line under a slush-fund scandal.

The loss of the coalition’s previously comfortable majority was a much worse result for the party than most analysts had forecast and reflects surging discontent in Japan after years of stagnant wage growth combined with recent sharp increases in the cost of living.

“Looking at results, it is true voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly accept this result,” Ishiba told broadcaster NHK in an interview.

NHK seat counts showed that the LDP and its much smaller coalition partner Komeito fell well short of the 233 seats needed to control Japan’s lower house of parliament. With all seats declared by 5.45am local time, the LDP had secured only 191, while Komeito had 24.

Economists warned that the electorate’s unexpectedly severe punishment of the LDP could trigger high volatility in markets today. Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis has more on the shock results and what comes next for the LDP.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Malaysia publishes the September produce price index and Hong Kong releases external merchandise trade data for the month.

• State visit: Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins an official visit to China.

• New Zealand: Financial markets are closed for Labour Day.

Five more top stories

1. Shanghai authorities have cracked down on Halloween costumes, amid fears of a repeat of last year’s mass gathering that included people wearing outfits with political messages. One student told the FT: “We had hats and cat ears, and they’re like ‘you can’t do that this year, unless you’re going to Disneyland’ or something.” Read the full story.

2. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has signalled a measured response to Israel’s attack on the Islamic republic rather than an immediate reprisal. In a public speech a day after Israel launched three waves of strikes on Iran, Khamenei tried to balance domestic expectations with the risk of escalating regional conflict.

3. Georgia’s opposition has called for protests after preliminary results in a parliamentary election showed victory for the ruling party. The pivotal vote was widely seen as a choice between a future in Europe or alignment with Russia.

4. EssilorLuxottica has expressed its “full support” to chief strategy officer Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio, the late founder’s son, after Milanese prosecutors placed him under investigation as part of a sprawling probe into the alleged trafficking of illegally acquired private information.

5. Banks and regulators are warning that QR code phishing scams are slipping through corporate cyber defences and increasingly tricking customers into giving up their financial details. Here’s more on the rise of so-called “quishing” attacks.

Lunch with the FT

Li Cheng, one of the pre-eminent scholars of elite Chinese politics, discusses the breakdown of US-China relations, what Xi Jinping’s fourth term might hold — and why neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump makes him hopeful of change.

We’re also reading . . . 

• A brave new world on Russia’s doorstep: Central Asia’s five states are increasingly standing up for themselves on matters of language, history and identity, writes Tony Barber.

• Robotaxi pods: These self-driving, on-demand vehicles could change the way we move around cities, writes Vinod Khosla, the founder of Khosla Ventures.

• Battle of the billionaires: A small number of big spenders could help swing the result of the US presidential election, according to an FT analysis.

Chart of the day

With the US presidential election entering its final days, top officials warned that an “alarming” lurch towards economic protectionism risks derailing the global economic recovery. Donald Trump has pledged to impose across-the-board tariffs of 20 per cent on America’s partners, as well as a 60 per cent tax on Chinese imports, while pursuing mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and sweeping tax cuts.

Take a break from the news

Diwali begins on Thursday with festivities in India and across the world. Los Angeles-based food writer Radhi Devlukia-Shetty shares how she celebrates the festival of light in an interview with House & Home.