Keir Starmer sets out his foreign policy agenda

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Could this be the week that Sir Keir Starmer gets a grip on his agenda? He starts with an excellent opportunity, giving the annual Mansion House speech on foreign affairs in the gilded surroundings of the Lord Mayor’s banqueting hall. It is his chance to present the difference his new(ish) Labour government will take to relations with US president-elect Donald Trump, the EU and China.

On Thursday, Starmer will present fresh pledges in a “plan for change” speech, though chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden today denied that these targets amount to a reset.

Of course events (most obviously the freebies row just as his party took power) have been Starmer’s undoing in the past. One potential diplomatic booby trap Starmer aims to sidestep this week is a visit to London on Monday by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has repeatedly called on the British Museum to permanently return the Parthenon Sculptures, the relics previously known as the Elgin Marbles, to Athens. The two will meet and the British leader has let it be known that he will not stand in the way of a “loan” of some of the artefacts if a deal can be struck between the British Museum and Greece.

Talking of political upsets, this Sunday will also see the run-off vote in Romania’s presidential election. Last week the Romanian Constitutional Court demanded a recount of the first-round ballot after Călin Georgescu, a pro-Russian ultranationalist, shocked the nation by coming out on top.

The week brings a trickle of company earnings statements, but expect further data on the success of this year’s Black Friday shopping event as we enter Cyber Monday. One retailer that has itself been shopping of late (for stakes in other companies) is Mike Ashley’s sportswear and fashion retailer Frasers Group. It will be giving a trading update.

The economic data will be bountiful this week, notably US unemployment figures and a third-quarter GDP estimate from the EU, both published on Friday, and G7 economic comparisons with the latest purchasing managers’ index data.

Central bankers will be out in force at conference halls and parliamentary committees over the next seven days, sharing their thoughts on the global economy and monetary policy. Some of them will be at the FT’s Global Banking Summit, a two-day London event, kicking off on Tuesday with onstage panels and keynotes as well as behind closed doors roundtables. Register here. More details of the rest of the week’s events below.

One more thing . . . 

Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris will be (rightly) getting a lot of media attention with a series of events culminating in its official reopening to the public next Sunday. For background on the immense reconstruction work to restore one of the world’s great Christian places of worship, FT Paris bureau chief Leila Abboud’s excellent analysis from last year still hits the mark.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Cyber Monday, the first full working day after the US Thanksgiving holiday, when many retailers traditionally hold special promotions and sales online

• Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors, to speak at the American Institute for Economic Research’s Building a Better Fed Framework monetary conference in Washington

• Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB November manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• EU: Eurozone October unemployment rate

• UK: Nationwide November House Price Index

• Results: Prosus HY

Tuesday

• FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing

• Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors, to speak about labour market and monetary policy at a Detroit Economic Club event

• Brazil: Q3 GDP estimate

• Korea: November consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data (AM local time)

• Turkey: November CPI inflation rate data

• UK: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

• Results: Paragon Banking FY, Salesforce Q3

Wednesday

• Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell to speak on a panel event at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde to speak at the Econ hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European parliament in Brussels

• Andrew Bailey to speak at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event

• OECD Economic Outlook

• Australia: Q3 GDP estimate

• Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB November services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

• Results: Campbell’s Co Q1, Dollarama Q3, Dollar Tree Q3, Royal Bank of Canada Q4

Thursday

• Germany: October industrial orders data

• Korea: Q3 GDP estimate (AM local time)

• Victoria Cleland, Bank of England executive director of payments, to speak at Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service’

• EU, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global/HCOB November construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Results: Brown-Forman Q2, DS Smith HY, Frasers Group HY, Future FY, Kroger Q3, Toronto-Dominion Bank Q4

Friday

• Michelle Bowman, board governor at the Federal Reserve, to speak at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference

• EU: Q3 GDP estimate

• Germany: October industrial production index

• India: Reserve Bank of India bimonthly monetary policy statement

• US: November jobs data. Also, December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey data

• Results: Berkeley Group HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• UK: Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London

• US: deadline for Donald Trump to file a motion to dismiss his hush money case in light of his presidential victory last month. It is uncertain if such a move would be made public immediately

Tuesday

• Belgium: two-day Nato foreign ministers’ meeting, chaired by secretary-general Mark Rutte, begins in Brussels

• UK: Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani. King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street

• UK: Turner Prize winner announced at London’s Tate Britain, marking the 40th anniversary of the award for British or UK-based artists

Wednesday

Thursday

• France: Lyon’s Festival of Lights, originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend

• Malta: two-day Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) ministerial council meeting begins in Ta’ Qali

• Uruguay: Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries in Montevideo

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to give a speech outlining new targets for his government.

Saturday

• France: President Emmanuel Macron hosts Notre-Dame Cathedral’s official inauguration ceremony in Paris, ahead of tomorrow’s public reopening

• Ghana: presidential and parliamentary elections

• Qatar: government officials, business executives and academics will arrive for the 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade. The theme of this year’s two-day event is The Innovation Imperative

Sunday

• Romania: presidential election run-off

• UK: National Solidarity March against Antisemitism in London, highlighting the increase in incidences since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel last year