Phil Jackson’s legendary 40-20 rule has long been a reliable indicator of championship legitimacy in the NBA.
The formula is simple: teams that reach 40 wins before suffering 20 losses have historically been serious contenders. Since 1984, nearly 90 percent of champions have met this benchmark, reinforcing its value as a predictor of postseason success.
The 2024-25 Los Angeles Lakers are hovering around this threshold. After back-to-back wins over the Clippers, they have won six straight and 18 of their last 24, sitting at 38-21, right in the vicinity of Jackson’s benchmark.
While they haven’t officially hit the 40-20 threshold, their recent acquisition of Luka Doncic, defensive resurgence and red-hot form have solidified their status as an elite contender. Doncic, through eight games with the Lakers, is averaging 22 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game.
After a slow start in Los Angeles, his 32-point, 10-rebound, seven-assist performance against the Denver Nuggets on Feb. 22 marked a turning point. Since then, he has hit top form, developing a dynamic partnership with LeBron James that has coincided with the team’s win streak.
The Lakers’ defensive transformation has been particularly striking. Since acquiring Doncic, they have posted the NBA’s second-best defensive rating (106.5), trailing only the Detroit Pistons.
While Doncic is not known for his defense, the team’s improvement has been driven by greater cohesion under first-time head coach JJ Redick, the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith — who leads the team with a +7.4 plus/minus, highlighting his impact on winning — and the return of defensive anchor Jarred Vanderbilt.
Offensively, Austin Reaves has stepped up as the Lakers’ third star since the All-Star break, averaging 18.7 points and 4.3 assists while shooting an impressive 38.5% from three-point range. His emergence has further bolstered a Lakers team finding its rhythm at the right time.
Veteran guard Gabe Vincent praised the team’s chemistry following Sunday’s win over the Clippers.
“We’re playing very hard. We’re playing unselfish,” Vincent said, via Lakers beat reporter Mike Trudell of Spectrum SportsNet. “I think guys are starting to understand the assignment.”
Elsewhere, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks have already reached 40-20, cementing their place in the title conversation. While the Lakers remain just outside that group, their current trajectory suggests they are peaking at the right time.
Jackson’s rule doesn’t account for injuries, matchups or playoff adjustments, but as a measuring stick, it remains relevant. With two generational talents in Doncic and James leading the way, the Lakers are well-positioned for a deep postseason run.
