On Sunday, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series stay home at the 2.28-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval for the running of the Bank of America Roval 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
Here is what you need to know ahead of the cutoff race in the Round of 12 of the playoffs.
The odds speak for themselves when it comes to what is expected from van Gisbergen on road courses. According to NASCAR Insights, van Gisbergen has the best road course win percentage (45.5%) of any driver all-time with a minimum of 10 starts.
All four of van Gisbergen’s wins this season have come on road/street courses, including each of the last four from a front-row starting spot. Although the Charlotte Roval is unlike any other road/street circuit due to its infield and oval combination, it will take a near-perfect weekend for someone to take down van Gisbergen.
Underdog: Alex Bowman (+3000, per DraftKings)
Like van Gisbergen, Bowman was eliminated from playoff contention following the opening round, but he is an underrated road racer whose success tends to get overshadowed. He has top 10s in three of the five road/street races this season and has five such finishes in six Roval starts.
Despite a post-race disqualification last season, Bowman’s average finish there is 11.67, which puts him eighth in the series. Don’t sleep on Bowman this weekend, especially with all the strategies that are sure to present themselves as playoff drivers balance chasing points and going for the win.
Can anyone halt Shane van Gisbergen’s road course dominance?
While the race win will likely go through van Gisbergen, there are a few drivers worth keeping an eye on as they look to punch their ticket to the Round of 8. Playoff drivers Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson each have wins there and tend to be toward the front in the closing laps.
Don’t count out non-playoff driver AJ Allmendinger, either, with four finishes of seventh or better in his five starts there, including a win in 2023. Van Gisbergen is the driver to beat, but he is not immune to facing a challenge from some of his competitors.
Can William Byron return to form?
One of the most disappointing drivers in the playoffs has been the regular-season champion Byron, who did not have a single top 10 in the opening round and struggled to find the balance on his No. 24 Chevrolet at Kansas before some late cautions helped him salvage a ninth-place finish.
Following a thrilling double-overtime win from Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Elliott at Kansas, is it time for the two-time winner this season to return to Victory Lane? With back-to-back top-three finishes at the Roval, better things could in store for Byron this weekend.
Joey Logano clings to final transfer spot
Logano enters Sunday’s race in the eighth and final transfer spot (+13) over Ross Chastain, putting him in a precarious position as he looks to defend his 2024 title. As a result of contact between Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace in turns 3-4, Elliott’s win kept Logano above the cutline instead of dropping him below it had Wallace won.
With the third-best average finish (8.57) at the Roval, Logano is in a decent position. However, with Chastain only 13 points behind and three-time road course winner Tyler Reddick 29 points out, Logano is not safe, especially if he does not score stage points or encounters an issue.
