ASYLUM CLAIMS
Waves of Canadian citizenship applications from distraught Democrats may be unlikely, but experts agree Canada could face more refugee claims.
Sean Rehaag, director of York University’s Centre for Refugee Studies, has noted the number of US citizens who sought asylum in Canada spiked when Trump first took office.
In 2016, 129 Americans made refugee claims in Canada. That jumped to 869 in 2017 and 642 in 2018.
Rehaag has written that those 1,500 were “mainly the children of people fearing deportation due to a change of their immigration status after spending years in the United States”.
Given Trump’s pledge to use the US military to carry out a mass deportation of undocumented migrants, Canadian authorities have said they are on alert for large movements of people towards the border.
If a mass deportation happens, “you’re going to see a significant increase of the volume of people who are crossing into Canada irregularly”, said Cohn.
But refugee laws have also changed since Trump’s first term.
The Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the United States was expanded in 2023, making it harder for anyone coming from the US to claim asylum in Canada.
Underpinning the agreement is the notion that Canada views the US as safe, so individuals not entitled to refugee status there are unlikely to merit protection in Canada either.
The agreement was already subject to Canadian legal challenges and some argue Trump’s election makes it more untenable.
“It doesn’t meet our standards for how we should be treating people,” said Jamie Chai Yun Liew, an immigration expert at the University of Ottawa, citing key difference in how Canada views vulnerable groups, including claims related to gender-based violence or gender diversity.
She urged the Canadian government to “take a good look at what Trump… has done in the past” and what he is proposing for his next term, and consider reviewing the pact.
