The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.
Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.
“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”
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With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.
The findings come as the United Nations’ climate talks get underway in Antalya, Türkiye, and during a year marred by global temperature extremes and climate disasters. This year is on track to be among the hottest on record.
The drop in emissions is also notable because it is the first annual reduction since the COVID pandemic, when emissions dropped by an estimated 5 percent or so, Le Quéré says. Researchers also measured a small decrease in emissions after the 2008 recession. “However, in both cases, emissions rebounded the year after,” Le Quéré says.
If oil prices return to their prewar levels, Le Quéré and her colleagues expect to see emissions rise once more. But the “rebound” could be countered by further adding renewable energy to the world’s portfolio, she adds.
“We show that to tackle climate change and guarantee that global fossil emissions decrease durably, the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles need to accelerate further,” Le Quéré says.
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