This week, Alexander Dugin, a self-styled philosopher who has consistently supplied Putin with the ideological language to back up his policies, sat down for a long interview with Glenn Greenwald, the formerly leftist American journalist. Dugin affably explained why Russia invaded Ukraine: because it wanted and needed to reclaim its former European holdings but realistically could attempt to occupy only Ukraine. He also laid out potential pathways to ending the war. At the very least, he said, Russia would require a partition, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. He was purposefully using the language the Allies applied to Germany in Yalta.
On X, where Dugin has been hyperactive in the last weeks, he is even bolder. In the lead-up to elections last week in Germany, he posted, “Vote AfD or we will occupy Germany once more and divide it between Russia and USA.” (A German journalist friend sent me a screenshot asking if the post was real — German journalists are less accustomed to the unimaginable than Russian ones.)
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine understands the enormity of the threat, not only to his country but to Europe, for which Ukraine has served as a deadly buffer zone. But on Friday, when he tried to talk about this threat during an Oval Office meeting, Trump and Vice President JD Vance became furious. They yelled at him, demanding that he acknowledge his powerlessness and grovel in gratitude. The talks collapsed.
What happens to Ukraine now? Before Zelensky’s visit to Washington, the best-case scenario was for Russia to agree to a cease-fire in exchange for the roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory that it currently occupies. That would leave millions of Ukrainian citizens — those who live in the occupied territories and those who have been displaced east — under the rule of Russian totalitarianism. Now that outcome, which was never likely to begin with, appears all but impossible. We are now in the realm of the worst-case scenario, in which it is possible to imagine Putin launching a renewed offensive against Ukraine, aimed at total domination, this time with the active assistance of the United States.
Putin doesn’t just want a return to the 20th century. He already resides there, and that is where anyone looking for what could happen next should turn. Specifically to 1938, when the British prime minister Neville Chamberlain, who fancied himself a brilliant negotiator and an expert in all things, brokered an agreement that gave Hitler Sudetenland, an area of Czechoslovakia. In exchange, the rest of Europe would, ostensibly, be safe from German aggression. A year after the resulting Munich Agreement was signed, of course, Germany invaded Poland and World War II officially began.
