TRUMP SAYS TALKS “MOVING ALONG NICELY”
Trump told Fox News overnight that talks were “moving along nicely” and “an all-day negotiation” had taken place on Tuesday.
The Strait of Hormuz “is going to be open very soon”, Trump added. “If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard.”
Over the weekend, Trump cited the negotiations as the reason for a decision to call off plans for “massive attacks” on Iran, a pattern he has repeated numerous times throughout the war.
The senior Iranian source downplayed the suggestion that a deal would be finalised quickly, noting that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was on holiday.
“Talks are continuing, but it is too early to say that a deal with Oman has been finalised,” the senior Iranian source said.
Another Iranian source said: “The devil is in the details. A single tweet from Trump could cause the whole thing to collapse.”
An agreement that gives Iran any control over access to the strait would mean the war launched by the US and Israel had resulted in a major shift in the balance of regional power in Tehran’s favour. Before the war, the strait was freely open to all ships with no fees.
But Trump, who initially said “Operation Epic Fury” would end in Iran’s “unconditional surrender” with him approving the choice of its leader, has been under pressure to find a way out of a war US voters now oppose two-to-one.
According to the senior Iranian official, Iran was seeking fees of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman was discussing smaller fees of around 3 per cent, while Washington wants no fees at all.
Making any fees voluntary, at least nominally, could be a way out of the impasse, although an implied threat of Iranian attacks could mean shippers would be unlikely to risk transit without paying.
Months of US military efforts, including a two-week campaign of strikes in July, have not broken Iran’s grip on the strait. US commanders advised Trump in July that they were running low on supplies of some munitions. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US Army had used up nearly all of its long-range precision missiles.
Periodic US military escalations have been met by stronger responses from Iran and its proxies, including the Houthi fighters who control much of Yemen as well as a second major regional shipping chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea.
On Wednesday, the Houthis said they had again struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, their latest attack to enforce what they say is a blockade of Saudi oil shipments through the main route used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, a projectile sank an Indian-flagged vessel near Yemen, Indian officials said. All 14 crew members, 13 of them Indian, were rescued. The Houthis’ rivals for control of Yemen, a government based in the south of the country, blamed that attack on the Houthis.
