Spring Statement brings day of reckoning for UK

Hello and welcome to the working week. Or in the case of Britain at the moment, weak and not really working.

The headline event over the next seven days for my colleagues on the UK news and economics desks — as well as much of the London newsroom — will be the Spring Statement to the Westminster parliament by chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The first thing to watch for is the revision to forecasts for growth, or rather the lack of growth, by the Office for Budget Responsibility. They will be down because the GDP estimates have been worse than expected by the OBR when it published its forecasts for the Budget last year. The OBR has to downgrade this year’s growth figure from 2 per cent to 1.3 per cent even if it keeps its view of the rest of 2025 unchanged. My colleague Chris Giles believes it’s more likely that the OBR halves the figure to about 1 per cent.

The main change in the forecast will be higher than expected interest rates, increasing the cost of government debt service by about £10bn a year, or 0.3 per cent of GDP. That is sufficient to wipe out the headroom Reeves had in October against her main fiscal rule to balance day-to-day public spending with taxation by 2029-30.

The net result of all this, given the chancellor’s commitment to stability as well as growth, is that Reeves will balance the books with the cuts to welfare announced last week along with slightly lower departmental spending over the rest of the parliament than previously planned. Don’t expect any tax changes — those will have to wait for this autumn’s Budget speech. The Treasury’s ambition this week is to be boring. Reeves’ speech is due to kick off at 12:30pm local time on Wednesday.

I need to highlight the less easy to diarise — but arguably most important — event of the next seven days, namely the talks between the US and Russia about the war in Ukraine, hosted by Saudi Arabia. Financial Times subscribers can hear analysis from FT experts on developments on the battlefield, in European capitals and US foreign policy under US President Donald Trump with an exclusive webinar this Thursday between 1pm and 2pm GMT. Register here. In other news, Wednesday is the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected president. Just saying.

Germany’s new grand coalition will take its place in the 21st Bundestag on Tuesday as the country’s new parliament convenes after last month’s election. It will look a lot different: newly appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz presides over a coalition of his Christian Democratic Union with the Social Democratic party, but the far-right Alternative for Germany and far-left Die Linke will together hold more than a third of the seats in the new Bundestag.

In Asia, there will be anticipation about further details on China’s plan to stimulate its domestic economy. The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) begins its four-day annual conference on Tuesday in China, often seen as the region’s answer to the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos.

In a relatively thin week for earnings announcements, British retailer Next will be among the standout reports. It is expected to reveal a 10 per cent increase in annual profit, making in excess of £1bn for the first time, when it publishes numbers on Thursday. Attention will focus on the company’s perspective on UK consumer confidence (previously pessimistic) and the impact of the national insurance increase, about to come into force, on hiring decisions.

The next seven days brings the regular run of end of month surveys: the comparison of G7 economies through the flash purchasing managers’ index reports, Germany’s Ifo and US Consumer Confidence surveys. However, there are also significant data reports: personal income and durable goods orders from the US, inflation, retail sales and trade data from the UK, French, Spanish and Japanese inflation numbers, German unemployment figures and Australia’s monthly GDP estimate. More details on these and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

Europe’s clocks spring forward on Sunday. Do you have better things to do with your time? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

And finally a belated thank you to all those who suggested ideas for a coming of age birthday treat for my youngest child. Keeping it simple was the best advice, so we took him to see super stylish spy flick Black Bag, which (unbeknown to me) includes a cameo by the FT’s London headquarters as the entrance to the secret service organisation’s base. I throughly recommend going to see the film — in line with the FT’s review — but please refrain from shouting out: “That’s Bracken House!” This location insight will not endear you either to your fellow film-goers or your teenage son.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is guest speaker for the University of Leicester Chancellor’s Distinguished Lecture, talking on growth in the UK economy

• Hargreaves Lansdown’s acquisition by a consortium comprising CVC Advisers, Nordic Capital XI Delta, SCSP and Platinum Ivy is expected to become effective

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Results: Science Group FY, Social Housing Reit FY

Tuesday

• HSBC Global Investment Summit, hosted by the bank’s chair Mark Tucker, in Hong Kong. Speakers at the two-day event include Hong Kong financial secretary Paul Chan Mo-po and Hong Kong chief executive John Lee

• Shell publishes its annual report, including details of chief executive Wael Sawan’s pay package

• Germany: ifo Business Climate Index

• Japan: minutes of the last monetary policy meeting

• Spain: February producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US: Conference Board’s March consumer confidence index

• Results: AG Barr FY, Ashtead Technology FY, Bellway HY, Fevertree Drinks FY, Heidelberg Materials FY, Henry Boot FY, IP Group FY, Kingfisher FY, McCormick & Company Q1, Regional Reit FY, Smiths Group HY, Tullow Oil FY

Wednesday

• Australia: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• France: INSEE consumer confidence survey

• Japan: February services PPI inflation rate data

• UK: February CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, UK House Price Index

• Results: Cintas Q3, Commerzbank FY, Dollar Tree Q4, Evoke FY, Exor FY, PayChex Q3, Porsche FY, Vistry Group FY

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank General Council meeting

• UK: Bank of England February capital issuance figures

• US: revised Q4 GDP estimate and weekly export sales figures

• Results: M&C Saatchi FY, H&M Q1, James Halstead HY, Lululemon Athletica Q4, Next FY

Friday

• Boohoo shareholders vote on name change to Debenhams Group

• Canada: January GDP estimate

• France: February PPI and March CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: February labour market statistics. Plus, March GfK consumer climate survey

• UK: revised Q4 GDP estimate, plus February retail sales figures for Great Britain

• US: February state employment figures. Also, February personal income data

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Canada: parliament resumes business, for the first time under new prime minister Mark Carney

• South-east Asia: the Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report

• Japan: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva arrives in Tokyo for a state visit, including meetings with the Emperor and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

Tuesday

• Australia: Budget Night, when treasurer Jim Chalmers presents the annual federal fiscal statement to the parliament in Canberra at 7:30pm local time. The Labor government, preparing for an election, faces pressure to boost cost of living spending while not adding anything that might fuel inflation, a tightrope walk

• China: Boao Forum for Asia begins

• Germany: 21st Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany, meets for its inaugural session after the February 23 elections

• Greece: Independence Day

• UK: Financial Conduct Authority chair Ashley Alder and chief executive Nikhil Rathi appear before the Treasury select committee to answer questions on the regulator’s work

Wednesday

• Bangladesh: Independence Day

• Germany: the country’s constitutional court decides whether taxpayers must continue to shoulder a so-called solidarity tax surcharge introduced after the German reunification three decades ago to support poorer eastern states. If the court sides with plaintiffs, federal tax revenues annually worth about €12bn could be in jeopardy, potentially putting further strains on state coffers

• Russia: 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected president

• UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Spring Statement to parliament, while the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its spring economic and fiscal forecast

Thursday

• Myanmar: Armed Forces Day, this year commemorating 80 years since conflict with the Japanese army in the second world war. Myanmar has been in crisis since the army chief Min Aung Hlaing led a coup and arrested members of an elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021

• UK: Tom Hayes, a former Citigroup and UBS trader, and the first person in the world to be found guilty by a jury for conspiring to rig the London Interbank Offered Rate, is due to hear the verdict of his appeal against his conviction at the Supreme Court. His appeal will be heard alongside that of former Barclays trader Carlo Palombo

Friday

• UK: Reform UK party stages a mass rally in the Utilita Arena, Birmingham — billed as its “biggest event yet” — to launch its campaign for local elections on May 1, as well as building momentum for the upcoming by-election in Runcorn

Saturday

• Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will join US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth and Gen Nakatani, the Japanese defence minister, on the Pacific island of Iwo Jima for a joint memorial service to commemorate the 1945 battle that involved some of the fiercest fighting of the second world war and the location for the famous US marine flag raising image. Hegseth is likely to use the occasion to lobby Japan to increase its defence spending

Sunday

• Eid al-Fitr (End of Ramadan)

• EU: European daylight savings time begins

• UK: British Summer Time begins. Also, Mothering Sunday