Geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and NATO’s push for war are set to disrupt the fiscal consolidation efforts in Europe. At the same time, growth challenges call for much more significant investment than existing fiscal rules prescribe. That is a time bomb under the entire European project. Key risks are defense and concerns over competition. These will derail efforts to cut deficits and lift borrowing costs because the Neocons never care about the people or the economy. They have exploited the United States for decades, creating endless wars. The yield on the 10-year German Bund would most likely rise to test the 5% level by 2027 without outright war, but with war, the minimum target becomes 8%.
Our Monthly Timing Arrays from the Computer show a DOUBLE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE this month with rising volatility. The risk of Zelensky’s arrogance as he takes orders from the Neocons toward war remains very high. Sources are already saying that climate change has destroyed Europe’s car industry. The are planning to revamp the car plants into weapons. They are considering that Italy’s struggling car industry will convert to weapons manufacture with subcontractors across Lombardy and the Veneto. They will then supply the German armaments plants where Volkswagen, in particular, will produce weapons.
This is becoming painfully obvious that the EU has devasted the European economy (1) with COVID lockdowns, (2) climate change, and (3) sanctions on Russia. They see war as a boom to their economies to offset job losses in the car industry that they have unleashed with their stupidity. Even the premier of Bavaria, Markus Soder, is calling for a full-scale revival of German military power along with a joint nuclear deterrent in concert with France and the UK. It is widely known that it was not the New Deal that ended the Great Depression but the war. The Europeans wanted the US to keep paying the bills, but if Trump did not, they realized they were going to have to shift policies. From what I am hearing, that is already underway.
