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The US economy blew past expectations to create 256,000 jobs in December, sending yields on US government debt lurching higher as traders and banks trimmed their forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday exceeded the consensus forecast from economists polled by Reuters of 160,000 and was above the downwardly revised 212,000 positions added in November.
Treasury yields climbed as investors bet the Fed will be slower to cut interest rates this year. Futures markets pushed back the expected timing of the first quarter-point rate cut to September from June before the data release. The odds of a second cut this year fell to about 20 per cent from roughly 60 per cent.
Bank of America went further on Friday, saying the “gangbusters” jobs reports suggests “the cutting cycle is over”.
The Wall Street bank added “the conversation should move to hikes, which could be in play” if inflation picks up significantly. Goldman Sachs on Friday also scaled back its forecasts for 2025 rate cuts from three quarter-point reductions to two.
The robust jobs figures sent US government bond yields rising across the spectrum. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed 0.08 percentage points to 4.76 per cent — the highest level since November 2023. The policy-sensitive two-year yield soared 0.12 percentage points to 4.38 per cent.
Wall Street stocks dropped, with the broad S&P 500 closing down 1.5 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite losing 1.6 per cent. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest since the November 5 US election.
Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, said: “[December’s jobs] number emphasises that the Fed does not need to rush . . . it validates to a significant degree that they should be on hold for a few months.”
The bond market was already “on edge”, he added.
Friday’s jobs data was hotly anticipated on both sides of the Atlantic amid a sell-off in government bond markets, fuelled in part by growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates only slightly in 2025.
UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has come under increasing pressure this week after government borrowing costs soared, leaving her with little scope to meet her self-imposed fiscal rules.
UK bond yields climbed after the publication of the US jobs figures. The 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.85 per cent, 0.02 percentage points higher on the day, but below the 16-year high of 4.93 per cent hit earlier this week.
US president-elect Donald Trump’s plans to cut taxes, impose tariffs and curb immigration have also led the Fed to signal it will be more cautious in 2025.
The central bank in December forecast just two quarter-point rate cuts this year, compared with a projection of four in September, partly because of persistent strength in the jobs market.
Jeff Schmid, a top Fed official, on Thursday said the US central bank was “pretty close” to meeting its objectives on inflation and employment, underscoring expectations that policymakers will refrain from sharp interest rate cuts this year.
The Fed began cutting its main interest rate in September, reducing it by 1 full percentage point by the end of 2024.
At its next meeting later this month, the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its target range between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent.
Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said: “I think the Fed is feeling very good right now about taking a pass at the coming meeting — and obviously, if this kind of strength persists, they’ll take a pass at the next several meetings.”
Friday’s figures showed the unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent, compared with 4.2 per cent in November. They marked the last monthly jobs numbers released under Joe Biden’s presidency, during which the US economy created 16.6mn jobs.
An exceptionally strong labour market that defied frequent predictions that a sharp slowdown or recession was looming was a defining feature of the economy under Biden’s watch.
But politically it did not help the Biden administration because those gains were undercut by the inflation surge that peaked in the summer of 2022, sharply raising the cost of living for households throughout his tenure.
