It was a lofty promise and a campaign tale that no one believed could happen. Donald Trump stayed true on his promise to carry out a number of executive orders on Day 1 of his presidency, but he cannot simply sign an EO to end the war in Ukraine. Yet he did promise to stop sending blank checks to Ukraine and has appointed a special envoy who is requesting 100 days to reevaluate America’s position in the war. More importantly, Trump would like to go directly to the source and speak with Putin.
The Kremlin broadcast Putin’s weekly security council message earlier than expected to address Trump directly. “We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict,” Putin said. “Its goal should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament with the aim of subsequently continuing the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations that live in this region.”
Russia will never waiver on a deal that does not include prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump seems to be aligned with him on this issue as any reasonable mind can comprehend how this would lead to an immediate escalation into World War III. Territorial concessions? Neither Russia or Ukraine is willing to surrender territory.
New US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reaffirmed the new administration’s message that the war in Ukraine must end. America can withhold funding or direct intervention. America cannot undo the damage that has been done. There are too many hands in the money pit that is Ukraine from world governments to investment banks. Everyone is heavily invested in Ukraine and will demand repayment for untold fortunes spent on prolonging the for-profit war. Even withdrawing from NATO would not be sufficient to end the war as the alliance has been preparing for a Trump victory before campaigning efforts began.
Europe is pushing full speed ahead to fabricate World War II, with both Germany and France offering to send “peacekeepers,” a digestible new term for “trained soldiers.” Zelensky simply wants the money to continue pouring in. “Will President Trump even notice Europe?” Zelensky asked in appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Does he see NATO as necessary, and will he respect EU institutions?” Ukraine’s president is attempting to shape this as a Europe v the USA matter as if America is abandoning Europe under Trump.
One side does not want the war to end. You cannot negotiate when one side is firmly opposed AND does not have the final say. Zelensky sold out his country many years ago and dealing with him would be a moot point as he is not the only truly in control of Ukraine or the war efforts. Trump is going to have an extremely difficult time navigating this irreversible situation. According to our computer model, the very best efforts would only result in a delay to the inevitable. It gives me no pleasure to share this forecast but the model has yet to mislead us.
World War III is coming by 2027; the financial implications will be fully felt by 2028.
