US-Canada relations under the Trump Administration are beginning on tumultuous footing. Trump has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs on ALL imports if it fails to curb illegal immigration and drug trade from the northern border. Trudeau is now threatening to retaliate with tariffs of his own. The Bank of Canada has factored in these threats in its most recent decision to raise rates by 50 bps to 3.25%.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the new US administration presents “a major new uncertainty.” The markets had already priced in rate cuts ahead of the tariff threats, especially as inflation has allegedly reached the 2% target. This is the fifth time the Bank of Canada has cut rates in only six months after shedding 175 bps total. Yet, the central bank is not taking these tariff threats lightly because they could have a major impact on trade and the overall GDP. Macklem believes the bank can now take a “more gradual approach to monetary policy IF the economy evolves broadly as expected.”
The 25% tariff would send shockwaves through the Canadian economy. Around 77% of Canada’s exports are sent to the US, totaling $548 billion in 2023. The auto ($82 billion), energy ($166 billion), and manufacturing sectors would be particularly vulnerable due to the large cross-border trade. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and New Brunswick send over 70% of their exports to the US. Reports state that up to 2.4 million jobs tied to these industries, or 12% of the Canadian workforce, could be at risk.
Trump mocked Trudeau last month during a Mar-a-Lago dinner party after suggesting Canada could become the 51st state if it insisted on relying so heavily on the US. This week, Trump reiterated the now ongoing joke on Truth Social. “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!” Trump said in a social media post. While it may be humorous to mock Trudeau, these tariffs are a serious matter.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he believes Canada should retaliate with tariffs if appropriate. “But hopefully we’ll never go down that road. It’s not worth it and we’re so much stronger together. The last country the president should be worrying about is its closest ally and friend, Canada,” he said.
No one will win when using world trade as a political tool. The US economy will also feel the burden of these tariffs, and the supply chain will face disruptions. Unsettling trade with a key partner is not the way to solve the migration or illegal drug trade crises.
