SYDNEY: Asian markets were in for a rough start on Monday (Apr 7) as Wall Street futures plunged and markets wagered the mounting risk of a US recession could see US rate cuts as early as May.
S&P 500 futures slid 3.9 per cent in extremely volatile early trade, while Nasdaq futures dived 4.8 per cent, adding to last week’s almost US$6 trillion in market losses on worries over the fallout from a global trade war.
Nikkei futures slid almost 4 per cent to 31,080, pointing to a drop of up to 3,000 points for the cash index that closed at 33,780 on Friday.
The carnage came as White House officials showed no sign of backing away from their tariff plans, and China declared the markets had spoken on their retaliation through levies on US goods.
The flight to safe havens saw Treasury futures surge a full point, a very rare move for Asian trade, while Fed fund futures jumped to price in an extra quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.
Markets even implied around a 70 per cent chance the Fed could cut as soon as May, even though Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank was in no hurry on rates.
That dovish turn saw the dollar slip another 1 per cent on the safe-haven Japanese yen to 145.38 yen, while the euro held firm at US$1.0987.
“The size and disruptive impact of US trade policies, if sustained, would be sufficient to tip a still healthy US and global expansion into recession,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan, putting the risk of a downturn at 60 per cent.
“We continue to expect a first Fed easing in June,” he added. “However, we now think the Committee cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3 per cent.”
The gloomier outlook for global growth kept oil prices under heavy pressure, following steep losses last week.
Brent fell US$2.05 to US$63.53 a barrel, while US crude dived US$2.07 to US$59.92 per barrel.
Even gold was caught up in the selloff, easing 0.6 per cent to US$3,018 an ounce.
