Hope springs eternal for most baseball fans during spring training.
Yardbarker MLB writers, however, are here to deliver downers: National League players who are due for a regression this season. (2024 records for each team are in parentheses.)
NL East
ATLANTA BRAVES (89-73) | DH Marcell Ozuna | A 39-homer, 104-RBI campaign in 2024 saw Ozuna named an All-Star for the third time in his career. But as he enters his age-34 season in 2025, how much longer can his power be depended on?
MIAMI MARLINS (62-100) | Infielder Xavier Edwards | It’s slim pickings on the Marlins for regression candidates. Edwards had a .328 batting average last season, but his .398 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) suggests he experienced luck last season and the BA probably isn’t sustainable.
NEW YORK METS (89-73) | 3B Mark Vientos | Few expected Vientos to launch 27 homers last season, but he quickly became a force in the lineup. If his breakout year was a flash in the pan, former top prospect Brett Baty could challenge him at third base.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (95-67) | LHP Matt Strahm | Strahm has had two excellent seasons with the Phillies (2.69 ERA) and is a workhorse in their bullpen. However, he has struggled during spring training and a shoulder injury threatens his status for Opening Day.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (71-91) | RHP Kyle Finnegan | The Nats re-signed their All-Star closer Feb. 27 after he posted a career high in saves (38) last season and was named an All-Star. At 33, he may have reached his peak. That said, for now, the closer’s role is still his to lose. — Lauren Amour
NL West
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (89-73) | 2B Ketel Marte | The 31-year-old had the best statistical season of his 10-year MLB career last season, so staying at that torrid pace may be difficult. Marte posted 5.8 offensive bWAR in 2024, well above his 162-game career average of 4.4, indicating the Diamondbacks may see a slight dip from him this season.
COLORADO ROCKIES (61-101) | CF Brenton Doyle | A two-time Gold Glove winner, Doyle made massive strides at the plate last season, including slashing his strikeout percentage from 35 percent in 2023 to 25.4 percent in 2024. With Doyle likely to slide into the leadoff role in Denver this season, will his plate disciple and production stay at a high level?
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (98-64) | DH Shohei Ohtani | It may seem sacrilegious to discuss the reigning National League MVP as a candidate for regression in 2025, but his record-setting season of 54 homers and 59 stolen bases is going to be hard to top. Ohtani may be MLB’s version of Superman, but a potential return to the mound in this season may be enough to slow his offensive momentum.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (93-69) | CF Jackson Merrill | The 21-year-old surpassed every expectation of him as he took over center field for the Padres. After posting 24 homers and 90 RBI on his way to an OPS+ of 127 as a rookie, Merrill may take a step back.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (80-82) | 3B Matt Chapman | The 31-year-old defied expectations last season, posting 7.1 bWAR in his first season with the Giants. That marked the first time since 2019 he had surpassed 7.0 bWAR in a season (a stretch in which he hadn’t topped 4.4 in a season), meaning a downturn may be coming. — Kevin Henry
NL Central
CHICAGO CUBS (83-79) | RHP Ryan Pressly | Pressly, 36, is heading into his 13th year in the majors and coming off a season in Houston in which he showed signs of age. His strikeouts per nine innings, a statistic that was up to 12.1 just two seasons ago, was in single digits (9.2) for the first time since 2017.
CINCINNATI REDS (77-85) | RHP Alexis Diaz | Diaz entered 2024 looking to bounce back from a slump after a stellar rookie season (1.84 ERA and a 32.7 percent strikeout rate), but his performance declined further. His ERA ballooned to 3.99, with strikeouts dropping to 22.7 percent and walks climbing to 12.8 percent.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (93-69) | OF Blake Perkins | Coming off a season as a finalist for the Gold Glove Award, Perkins suffered a shin fracture in practice and is expected to be out until May. Already in a crowded outfield room (Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell), he could fall into the shadows of the core.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (76-86) | LHP Bailey Falter | In 2024, he posted a 4.43 ERA in 142.1 innings and just 97 strikeouts. Toward the end of 2024, he regressed, posting a 5.70 ERA over his last nine outings.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-79) | RHP Erick Fedde | After a midseason trade to the Cardinals, the 32-year-old struggled to replicate his form from the White Sox (9-9 in 31 starts). With St. Louis, he went 2-5 in 10 starts and declined in nearly all statistical categories. — Taylor Bretl
