QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your site. I have a question. I understand you are a trader, not an academic. That is the only reason I do read you. Why are academics incapable of ever forecasting the economy?
DL
Larry Summers Opinion _ Preparing for the next recession – The Washington Post
ANSWER: If you just listen to the interview of Larry Summers on forecasting, you will see that they do not believe you can forecast anything because it is complex like weather. If your forecast comes true, it is only because of influence – not some model forecast. This is why they have hated me so much. They refuse to accept that there can even be a model or cyclical analysis.
