Herro underwent surgery to repair left foot and ankle injuries on Friday, which will sideline him for the beginning of the NBA season. For a team that’s been pegged by sports books to win 39.5 games next season, the loss of last year’s team leader in scoring and assists (23.9 points, 5.5 assists) is a devastating blow — but also an opportunity.
The Heat have been trapped in NBA purgatory, spending the last three years in the NBA’s play-in tournament. Thanks to the playoff heroics of Jimmy Butler, they made it to the NBA Finals in 2023, but Butler is now with the Golden State Warriors. Miami isn’t good enough to be a contender, but not bad enough to secure a good draft pick.
This is the perfect time for the Heat to reset
The Heat owe their first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets in 2027, though it is lottery-protected. That makes this season an ideal time for them to reestablish themselves, especially since they might not have a choice about it early on.
Miami plays 11 of its first 15 games against teams that made the playoffs last season and six of its first eight games on the road. Without Herro, that’s a brutal stretch of games. The Heat could be well under .500 by Thanksgiving.
Miami has several expiring deals on the roster as well, which they could either trade or let expire to create cap space next summer. Terry Rozier, Norman Powell and Simone Fontecchio represent over $53M in tradeable, expiring salary. The Los Angeles Lakers have shown interest in Andrew Wiggins, and Davion Mitchell could even be an attractive trade piece at two years and $24M.
Miami has a chance to evaluate young players
Beyond Herro, the Heat have a collection of intriguing but unproven young talent at guard. There’s this year’s first-round pick, Kasparas Jakucionis, plus second-year guard Pelle Larsson and Dru Smith, once he returns from his Achilles injury.
No one besides Herro and center Bam Adebayo looks like a guaranteed part of the Heat’s long-term future, besides perhaps young center Kel’el Ware. If they’re not going to contend this season, the Heat need to at least find out what they have in their young players.
If Herro misses significant time, the Heat’s best-case scenario is another play-in berth. For their long-term future, a lottery pick, cap flexibility and some draft picks are much more valuable than playing in another play-in game.
