China returns fire in Donald Trump’s trade war

Hello and welcome to the working week.

In economic wars, as in military ones, an initial onslaught is followed by return fire. This is the position in which we find ourselves as we head into another rollercoaster seven days.

On Monday China imposes tariffs of up to 15 per cent on the US, covering cotton and agricultural goods including chicken, corn and soyabeans. These are a direct response to the opening salvo tariffs by US President Donald Trump, who will add a 25 per cent levy on aluminium imports to his protectionist roster on Wednesday. Unlike the on-again-off-again battle with neighbours Mexico and Canada, these tariffs look likely to stick.

Trump’s claims that his trade wars will only cause a “little disturbance” looks optimistic to say the least because the usual factors that contain such outbreaks do not appear to be playing out this time, as the Financial Times columnist and Trade Secrets writer Alan Beattie explains.

While all of this tit-for-tat economic skirmishing plays out, Britain will host a church service on Monday at Westminster Abbey, the annual gathering to celebrate trade and mutual co-operation among the 56 member nations of the Commonwealth. Of course, this post Empire club is a far from easy coalition, so there may be the kind of fireworks the hosts would prefer to do without.

Greenland’s 41,126 registered voters go to the polls for a general election on Tuesday. This would not normally be headline global news had the sparsely populated Arctic island not been added to Trump’s overseas territory shopping list. But it has — and you can find out exactly why by reading my colleague Richard Milne’s report from the fjords of Nuuk. The big issue for voters is Greenland’s (pre-Trump) independence aspirations — the biggest dividing line between the main parties is how quickly, not whether this can take place. There is also concern about relations between its current owner Denmark and the US, as well as the local concerns about the fragile economy, which is highly dependent on fishing and Danish grants.

And so to corporate news, where the results rush turns to a trickle, but with notable examples in the consumer goods and retail spaces. Brick behemoth Lego reports full-year results on Tuesday with the main question being how can the plastic toy manufacturer sustain the recent sparkling form that has now even branched into Formula 1 racing. On Thursday British retailing stalwart John Lewis unveils its first set of annual results under chair Jason Tarry, a veteran of UK supermarket doyen Tesco, who took over from Dame Sharon White last year. Its 65,000 employees, who together own the John Lewis and Waitrose brands, will find out if they will receive an annual bonus (hopes are not high) after a three-year hiatus as the group attempts to turn itself round.

Thames Water will be back in the news (is it ever out of it?) with a High Court hearing due to begin on Tuesday over the £3bn restructuring plan proposed by parent company Thames Water Utilities Holdings. The utility, which has faced long-term struggles over infrastructure costs, has a debt of £19bn and is likely to default on this soon. If you’ve not read it already I recommend my colleague John Gapper’s analysis, arguing that the only way forward may be to borrow more.

There is a steady run of economic news. The headline events will be US inflation, watched for any signs of a tariff-induced uptick, as well as UK and Japanese GDP estimates plus EU employment data. More details about these and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

The youngest Moules turns 16 this week. When I was his age — also the youngest of my siblings — my parents allowed me to have a house party, which turned out to be a little, er, wild. We didn’t need TikTok to turn things viral, just some mouthy mates and a garden that backed on to a public park. It is why I am forever thankful that none of my children have shown the slightest interest in such gatherings at our London home, but according to this House & Home piece it’s another Zoomer generational shift.

Any ideas about the best way to toast a boy’s coming of age, or indeed how to deal with the bigger global crises? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if your reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Direct Line general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Aviva

• Germany: January industrial production data

• UK: KPMG/REC UK Report on Jobs and BDO Business Trends report

• Results: Clarkson FY, HgCapital Trust FY, Jardine Matheson FY, Oracle Q3

Tuesday

• High Court hearing begins after last month’s approval of a £3bn restructure plan for the parent company of Thames Water, which has debts of about £19bn

• Japan: revised Q4 GDP estimate (AM local time)

• UK: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor plus Manpower UK Employment Outlook Survey

• US: January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data

• Results: Costain FY, Domino’s Pizza Group FY, Ferguson Enterprises FY, Henkel FY, Kier HY, Lego FY, Persimmon FY, Rotork FY, STV FY, TP ICAP FY, Volkswagen FY

Wednesday

• OPEC monthly Oil Market Report

• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement

• EU: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• US: February CPI inflation rate data

• Results: Adobe Q1, Balfour Beatty FY, Brenntag FY, Crown Castle Q4, Ferrexpo FY, Forterra FY, Gym Group FY, Hill & Smith FY, Hochschild Mining FY, Inditex FY, Legal & General FY, Mercedes-Benz FY, PensionBee FY, Porsche FY, Puma FY

Thursday

• FT Live Wealth Management Summit Asia, both in-person in Singapore and online. Register here for a place

• IEA Oil Market Report

• EU: January industrial production figures

• UK: RICS Residential Market Survey

• US: February producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Bridgepoint FY, C&C Group pre-close trading update for FY, Deliveroo FY, Deutsche Bank FY, DFS Furniture HY, Dollar General Q4, Helios Towers FY, HelloFresh FY, IG Group Q3, John Lewis Partnership FY, OSB Group FY, Restore FY, Savills FY, Trainline trading update for FY, Volution Group HY

Friday

• EU: Q4 labour market figures

• Germany: February CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: January GDP estimate. Also, Bank of England February inflation attitudes survey

• Results: AIA Group FY, Allianz FY, Berkeley Group trading update, BMW FY, Daimler Truck FY, Foxconn Q4, Swiss Life FY, Vanquis Banking Group FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• China: US import tariffs of up to 15 per cent come into force in response to Trump’s levies on Chinese exports to America. It is also the last day of this year’s National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference annual session, for China’s top political advisory body. The National People’s Congress annual session is under way and runs until Tuesday

• Saudi Arabia: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives for peace talks, picking up on a postponed visit that was due to happen in mid-February

• UK: Service at Westminster Abbey in London marking Commonwealth Day, the annual celebration of the Commonwealth of Nations

• US: 69th session of the Commission on the Status of Women begins at UN headquarters in New York, running until March 21

Tuesday

• Fifth anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak a pandemic as cases surged in Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan. The virus was first identified in China

• Belgium: Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels

• Greenland: parliamentary elections

• UK: MPs on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs committee question executives from Northumbrian Water and Dwr Cymru Welsh Water as part of the inquiry on reform of the water sector

Wednesday

• Belize: parliamentary elections

• Canada: G7 foreign ministers meeting in the Charlevoix region of Quebec.

• US: Trump imposes 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. He will also host Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin for a bilateral meeting as part of the latter’s annual St Patrick’s visit to Washington

• US: SpaceX Crew-10 mission, a Dragon spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket, launches from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on a voyage to the International Space Station

• Vietnam: AI-Semiconductor conference begins in Hanoi, running until Friday. Attendees expected to include executives from Google DeepMind, IBM, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, Panasonic, Qorvo and Marvell

Thursday

• Holi, the two-day Hindu festival of colours, celebrating the arrival of spring and the triumph of good over evil, begins

• South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa plays host to European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for the eighth EU-South Africa Summit

• US: Association for Asian Studies annual conference begins in Columbus, Ohio, running until Sunday

Friday

• UK: Gold Cup Day at the Cheltenham Festival, the grand finale of a four-day event, hailed as the world’s most significant horseracing jump event

• US: deadline to extend funding for parts of the federal government and avoid a shutdown, following a last-gasp resolution in December, which provided aid for natural disaster relief and farmers but did not change the debt ceiling

Saturday

Sunday

• Latvia: Legion Day, commemorating soldiers of the Latvian Legion that served in Nazi Germany’s Waffen-SS branch during the second world war

• UK: St Patrick’s Day parade in London ahead of the Irish patron saint’s feast day tomorrow